A股或将从单边拉升转入震荡消化阶段

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for stock index trends is "oscillation" [5] Core View of the Report - A-shares may enter a period of high-level oscillatory tug-of-war in September, rather than the previous one-way upward trend. This is due to factors such as the ongoing domestic anti-involution policy with potential long - term PPI boost, the high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September, and the short - term pressure on the domestic economy with a large gap between the stock market and the economy [2][11] Summary by Directory 1. One - Week View and Overview of Macro Key Events - Next - Week View: A - shares may enter an oscillatory adjustment period. The market showed a sharp oscillation this week, with three consecutive days of one - way decline from September 2nd to 4th, followed by a rebound on September 5th. The market style is shifting towards large - cap growth, and factors such as domestic policies, overseas interest rate cuts, and domestic economic pressure will affect the market trend [2][11] - This - Week Key Events: Multiple events occurred, including the Shanghai Cooperation Organization leaders' meeting, the announcement of the China - Latin America Entrepreneurs Summit, statements on urban development, visa - free policies between China and Russia, central bank liquidity announcements, joint meetings between the Ministry of Finance and the central bank, policies to promote the sports industry, anti - circumvention measures against US fiber products, and reforms in public fund sales fees [12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23] 2. One - Week Market行情 Overview - Global Stock Market Weekly Overview: Global stock markets denominated in US dollars rose this week. The MSCI Global Index increased by 0.44%, with emerging markets (+1.40%) > frontier markets (+0.52%) > developed markets (+0.32%). China's stock market led the world with a 1.89% increase, while Germany's stock market had the worst performance with a 1.26% decline [24] - China Stock Market Weekly Overview: China's equity assets were differentiated. In terms of different markets, Hong Kong stocks > Chinese concept stocks > A - shares. The average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets in A - shares was 2.6036 trillion yuan, a decrease of 380.3 billion yuan compared to last week. Most indices rose, with the Beixin 50 Index rising 2.79% and the Kechuang 50 Index falling 5.42% [27] - Weekly Overview of GICS Primary Industries in Chinese and Foreign Stock Markets: Most global GICS primary industries declined this week. The leading industry was telecommunications services (+3.89%), and the underperforming industry was energy (-2.59%). In the Chinese market, healthcare led the rise (+1.34%), while information technology lagged (-4.98%) [31] - Weekly Overview of China A - Share CITIC Primary Industries: Among China's A - share CITIC primary industries, 10 industries rose (15 last week) and 20 industries fell (15 last week). The leading industry was new energy (+5.91%), and the industry with the largest underperformance was national defense and military industry (-11.61%) [32] - Weekly Overview of China A - Share Style: The large - cap growth style was dominant. The growth style outperformed the value style, and the market - cap style was biased towards large - cap [37] - Futures Basis Overview: Information on the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM in the past 6 months is provided [40][44] 3. Index Valuation and Earnings Forecast Overview - Broad - Based Index Valuation: Valuation data of various broad - based indices such as the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 100, etc. are presented, including PE and PB this week, their eight - year percentiles, and changes compared to the beginning of the year [45] - Primary Industry Valuation: Valuation data of various primary industries such as petroleum and petrochemicals, coal, etc. are shown, including PE and PB this week, their eight - year percentiles, and changes compared to the beginning of the year [46] - Broad - Based Index Equity Risk Premium: The ERP of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 increased slightly this week [47][52] - Broad - Based Index Consensus Earnings Growth Forecast: The 2025 and 2026 expected earnings growth rates of the CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 have been adjusted [53] 4. Liquidity and Fund Flow Tracking - Interest Rates and Exchange Rates: This week, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond declined, the 1 - year yield increased, and the spread narrowed. The US dollar index was 97.7, and the offshore RMB exchange rate was 7.12 [61] - Trading - Type Fund Tracking: The average daily trading volume of north - bound funds decreased by 39.9 billion yuan compared to last week, and the margin trading balance increased by 18.8 billion yuan [63] - Fund Inflow Tracking through ETFs: The number of on - exchange ETFs tracking the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, and CSI A500 is given. The share of ETFs tracking the CSI 300 decreased by 240 million shares, the share of those tracking the CSI 500 decreased by 40 million shares, the share of those tracking the CSI 1000 increased by 930 million shares, and the share of those tracking the CSI A500 increased by 50 million shares [67][68][71] 5. Domestic Macro High - Frequency Data Tracking - Supply Side: Crude steel production declined significantly. Indicators such as blast furnace operating rates, coking enterprise operating rates, and tire operating rates are presented [75][76][77] - Consumption Side: Real estate transactions remained sluggish. Data on housing transaction areas, land transaction areas, and passenger car wholesale sales are provided [82][83][89][91] - Inflation Observation: Production material prices rebounded from a low level, while agricultural product prices reached a new low this year [93][94]