国际时政周评：关注多国国内政治不确定性

Political Developments - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit took place from August 31 to September 1, with multiple national leaders attending[4] - On September 4, 26 European countries committed to deploying troops to Ukraine under a ceasefire or peace agreement framework, aiming to unify positions with the U.S. and pressure Russia[4] - Japan's Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation from the Liberal Democratic Party leadership[4] U.S. Tariff Updates - The Trump administration appealed to the Supreme Court regarding a ruling that deemed tariffs on multiple countries illegal[4] - A new tariff agreement with Japan was signed, reducing the import tariff on Japanese cars from 27.5% to 15% and eliminating tariffs on generic drugs[10] - Key products like gold, tungsten, uranium, and graphite are exempt from tariffs, while silicon products have been added to the taxable list[12] Upcoming Events - On September 8, the French National Assembly will hold a confidence vote regarding the government's budget, which may lead to short-term political instability in France[14] - The U.S. Congress will reconvene, focusing on various political issues, including Trump's potential dismissal of a Federal Reserve governor and new sanctions against Russia[15] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 1.2% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.8%[5] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 1.4%, reflecting a year-to-date gain of 26.7%[5] - The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by 0.3%, with a year-to-date increase of 6.7%[5] Geopolitical Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions are expected, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, with a "negotiation while fighting" approach likely to continue[16] - The U.S. is expected to maintain pressure on Russia, contingent on Russia's willingness to engage in negotiations with Ukraine[17] - In the Middle East, the situation in Gaza and potential negotiations with Iran are critical, with risks of escalation from Israel's domestic politics[18]