固定收益定期：债市在震荡中渐进修复

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market may gradually recover in an oscillatory and progressive manner as the correlation between stocks and bonds weakens and commodity pressure eases, but other markets, seasonal factors, and regulatory policies may cause oscillations during the recovery process. It is recommended to adopt a dumbbell - shaped operation, and long - term bond rates may decline more smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, with rates expected to hit new lows this year [4][6][18] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Bond Market Performance This Week - This week, both long - term and short - term bonds remained oscillating. The active bonds of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds, 250011.IB and 2500002.IB, changed by - 1.25bps and 0.95bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.77% and 2.03%. After the month - end, the capital price remained loose, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit stayed at around 1.67%. Credit interest rates declined slightly, with the 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - secondary capital bonds falling by 1.7bps and 1.9bps respectively compared with last week, reaching 1.92% and 2.05% [1][9] Weakening Impact of the Stock and Commodity Markets on the Bond Market - The impact of the stock and commodity markets on the bond market has gradually weakened. The 10 - day moving correlation coefficient between the daily interest rate change of the 30 - year active bond and the increase of the Shanghai Composite Index dropped from around 0.8 in late July to around 0.15 currently. On one hand, it is due to the change in bond institutional positions; on the other hand, the relative cost - effectiveness of bonds compared with stocks has gradually increased. Since the end of July, the commodity price index has continued to decline, and the Nanhua Industrial Product Price Index on September 4th has cumulatively dropped by 6.3% compared with the high on July 25th [2][10] Factors Protecting the Bond Market - The loose capital and banks' under - allocation are the main protections for the bond market. The fundamentals are still under pressure, the demand is not strong, and the financing demand is insufficient, so the loose capital situation remains unchanged. The future asset supply will further decline, and the net financing of government bonds in the next 4 months may significantly decrease compared with the same period last year. For banks, the deposit growth rate is rising while the credit growth rate is slowing down, so banks need to increase bond allocation to make up for the gap, and they may have a high willingness to increase allocation [3][10] Reasons for the Oscillatory and Progressive Recovery of the Bond Market - Other markets still impact the bond market. Although the seesaw effect between stocks and bonds has weakened, non - banks still hold a relatively high position in long - term bonds, and a significant rise in the stock market may lead to institutional selling and short - term bond market fluctuations. Seasonal factors may restrict the downward speed of interest rates. September is often a period of interest rate adjustment, and October is an oscillatory period. The new regulations on public fund redemption fees may reduce institutional willingness to invest in bond funds, and the redemption behavior may bring short - term adjustment pressure to the market [4][14][17]