债券策略周报20250907：怎么判断后续债市的买点-20250907

Group 1 - The report suggests that in the current weak bond market, maintaining a bullet-type portfolio may lead to instability in liabilities, while adopting a trading strategy could enhance returns despite limited execution time and space [1][6][35] - It is recommended to focus on whether interest rates are oversold and if there is a short-term downward adjustment opportunity, as the probability of significant upward movement in interest rates remains low [1][6][35] - The current high level of the futures long-short ratio indicates that short-selling pressure is weak, suggesting that prices are not oversold, with the average cost of 10-year government bonds held by funds around 1.8% [2][7][17] Group 2 - The report emphasizes that if market sentiment reverses and interest rates decline smoothly, a shift back to a buy-on-dips strategy could be considered, although this requires specific events such as a central bank rate cut [2][3][36] - Investors are advised to focus on active long-term interest rate bonds, with expected volatility for 10-year government bonds in the range of 1.7-1.8% [2][3][36] - The report highlights the importance of selecting bonds based on the yield curve and value, recommending specific bonds such as 25T6 for long-term interest rate bonds and 240208 for medium-term bonds [12][9][10] Group 3 - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes that while the funding environment remains loose, attention should be gradually shifted away from medium to long-term credit bonds due to potential funding fluctuations in the upcoming months [3][12] - The report indicates that the performance of TF and T contracts has been relatively better than cash bonds, with the TL main contract being cheaper [3][13] - The report provides a weekly review of the bond market, noting a slight decline in overall interest rates, with short-term bonds performing better under the current conditions [14][15][16]