Industry Investment Ratings The provided content does not mention the industry investment ratings. Core Views - The stock index is expected to be mainly volatile in the short - term and consider buying on dips in the long - term. Bonds are expected to perform well in September. [12] - Steel will continue to have limited adjustment space and maintain a mid - term oscillating market; iron ore can be lightly shorted. Double - coking prices may continue to fall from high - level oscillations in the short - term. Silicon iron can be considered for long positions, while manganese silicon is suitable for short - selling on rebounds. Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass should be observed for now. [15][16][17][18][19] - Aluminum can be bought on dips, and alumina can be shorted on rallies. Zinc prices will oscillate and decline. Lithium carbonate will have a wide - range oscillation. Industrial silicon will oscillate, and polysilicon will have intense disk fluctuations. [22][23][24][25][27] - Cotton can be shorted on rallies in the long - term. Sugar should be shorted on rebounds. Eggs should be traded with an oscillating strategy. Apples can be bought on dips or use a long - 10 - short - 01 spread strategy. Corn can be shorted on the 01 contract. Red dates can be shorted on rallies. For live pigs, short the near - term contracts on rallies and consider long positions on the 01 contract in the medium - to - long - term. [29][31][34][35][37][38] - Crude oil prices are likely to fall. Fuel oil and asphalt prices will follow crude oil. Plastics will have a short - term strong - oscillating trend. Rubber can hold long positions in moderation. Methanol can reduce short positions and wait and see. Caustic soda should maintain a long - position strategy. Polyester industry chain products will operate weakly at the bottom. LPG should maintain a bearish view in the long - term. Pulp should observe port de - stocking. Logs should be observed. Urea should maintain a bearish view. Synthetic rubber can take profits on rallies and look for low - buying opportunities. [41][42][44][45][46][47][50][51][52][53][54][55] Summary by Directory Macro Information - The third - stage fee reform of public funds has been implemented, and the sales - link fee levels will be reasonably reduced. [10] - Shenzhen has further relaxed housing purchase restrictions, and mortgage interest rates are no longer differentiated between first - and second - home purchases. [10] - US non - farm payrolls in August were far lower than expected, increasing the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September. [10] - The Ministry of Commerce has imposed temporary anti - dumping measures on imported pork and by - products from the EU. [11] - Trump has mentioned potential candidates for the Fed chair, including Hassett. [11] - The US government will impose tariffs on semiconductor imports from companies that do not move production to the US. [11] - The probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike in October has increased significantly. [11] - The expectation of the central bank restarting treasury bond trading operations has risen sharply. [11] Macro Finance Stock Index Futures - Short - term, it will mainly oscillate; long - term, consider buying on dips. The A - share market rebounded on Friday, and overseas markets are discussing the possibility of a 50bp Fed rate cut in September. [12] Treasury Bond Futures - The market expects a possible 50bp rate cut in September. The capital side is loose, and the long - term bonds are expected to perform well in September. [12] Black Spiral Steel and Iron Ore - The adjustment space for steel is limited, and it will maintain an oscillating market in the medium - term. Iron ore can be lightly shorted. The supply is strong after the parade, and the downstream demand is weak. [15][16] Coking Coal and Coke - Double - coking prices may continue to fall from high - level oscillations in the short - term. The supply may gradually recover, but policy restrictions on coking coal supply still exist. The demand from steel mills is strong, but there is a possibility of a decline. [17] Ferroalloys - Silicon iron can be considered for long positions on the 10 - contract, and manganese silicon is suitable for short - selling on rebounds. The supply of silicon iron is at a high level, and the supply of manganese silicon will increase in the fourth quarter. [18] Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash can be shorted on rallies, and glass should be observed. The supply of soda ash is expected to increase, and the supply of glass will slightly increase in the future. [19][20] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum can be bought on dips, and alumina can be shorted on rallies. The consumption of aluminum is warming up in the peak season, and the supply of alumina is excessive. [22] Shanghai Zinc - Zinc prices will oscillate and decline. The social inventory is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. [23] Lithium Carbonate - It will have a wide - range oscillation. The supply and demand are both strong, but the continuous positive driving force is insufficient. [24] Industrial Silicon - It will oscillate. The production recovery is slow, and it is expected to start de - stocking after the dry season. [25] Polysilicon - The disk fluctuations will be intense. Policy progress dominates the disk, and there is a contradiction between policy expectations and fundamental over - supply. [27] Agricultural Products Cotton - It can be shorted on rallies in the long - term. The supply is low, the demand is weak, and the market is affected by the macro and international cotton markets. [29][30] Sugar - It should be shorted on rebounds. The supply is expected to increase, and the domestic supply and demand are relatively loose. [31][32] Eggs - Trade with an oscillating strategy. The in - production inventory of laying hens is high, but there is a de - capacity expectation in the futures market. [34] Apples - Buy on dips or use a long - 10 - short - 01 spread strategy. The price of early - maturing apples is high, and the price of inventory apples is relatively stable. [35] Corn - Short the 01 contract. The new grain listing may be delayed, and there is a supply gap expectation in 2025/26. [35][37] Red Dates - Short on rallies. The weather in Xinjiang is normal, and the price has declined. [38] Live Pigs - Short the near - term contracts on rallies and consider long positions on the 01 contract in the medium - to - long - term. The supply is strong in the short - term, and the demand will improve at the end of the month. [38] Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Prices are likely to fall. OPEC+ may increase production, and the supply exceeds demand in the medium - term. [41] Fuel Oil - Prices will follow crude oil. The supply concern has increased, and the demand is affected by various factors. [42] Plastics - It will have a short - term strong - oscillating trend. The supply pressure is large, and market rumors have boosted sentiment. [44] Rubber - Hold long positions in moderation. The supply of glue is tight, and policy rumors are positive. [45] Methanol - Reduce short positions and wait and see. The port inventory is increasing, but there are supply - side disturbances. [46] Caustic Soda - Maintain a long - position strategy. The supply and demand situation in Shandong is expected to improve, and the spot price is positive. [47] Asphalt - Prices will follow crude oil. It is in the seasonal demand peak season, and the inventory is decreasing. [47][49] Polyester Industry Chain - Products will operate weakly at the bottom. The cost support is weak, and the supply of some products is expected to increase. [50] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Maintain a bearish view in the long - term. The supply is abundant, and the demand is difficult to exceed expectations. [51] Pulp - Observe port de - stocking. The supply is expected to be loose, and the port inventory has decreased slightly. [52] Logs - Observe. The spot price is stable, but the disk receiving intention is not high. [53] Urea - Maintain a bearish view. The domestic demand is weak, and the export has not brought significant benefits. [54] Synthetic Rubber - Take profits on rallies and look for low - buying opportunities. The short - term supply and demand have no obvious contradiction, and the market is slightly strong in oscillation. [55]
中泰期货晨会纪要-20250908
Zhong Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-08 01:11