工业硅、多晶硅日评：高位整理-20250908

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided report Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon price is expected to maintain high-level consolidation in the short term, but there is a risk of a price decline if polysilicon enterprises implement production restrictions. The polysilicon price is likely to be volatile and prone to rising, with supply-side disturbances remaining unstable [1]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Changes: The average price of non-oxygenated 553 (East China) remained unchanged at 8,950 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) also remained flat at 9,400 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 3.58% to 8,820 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: Supply is increasing steadily as some silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and businesses in the southwest are operating more due to lower electricity costs. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are reducing production, with some having复产 plans, which will bring some demand. However, the organic silicon market is facing supply pressure, and silicon-aluminum alloy enterprises are purchasing as needed [1]. - Investment Strategy: The industrial silicon market has strengthened recently due to polysilicon sentiment. It is expected that the short-term silicon price will maintain high-level consolidation, but if polysilicon enterprises implement production restrictions, it will be negative for the industrial silicon market [1]. Polysilicon - Price Changes: The prices of N-type dense material, N-type re-feeding material, and N-type mixed material increased by 0.20%, 0.19%, and 0.20% respectively, while the price of N-type granular silicon remained unchanged. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 8.70% to 56,735 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand Analysis: Supply is expected to increase slightly as some silicon material factories may have new production capacity, but demand has also increased as many upstream and downstream enterprises completed procurement and shipments by the end of August, reducing inventory [1]. - Investment Strategy: The polysilicon market has been rising recently due to rumors of state purchases. In the short term, supply-side disturbances may cause price fluctuations, and the price is likely to rise [1]. Other Information - Industry News: Southern Co's subsidiary, Georgia Power, has been approved to sign five new solar power purchase agreements with a total capacity of 1,068 megawatts. It has also launched a tender for up to 2,000 megawatts of utility-scale solar or "solar + energy storage" projects [1]. - Company Announcement: Daquan Energy's General Manager, Zhu Wengang, stated that the company will continue its production reduction strategy in the third quarter, with a production guidance of 27,000 to 30,000 tons, and an annual production guidance of 110,000 to 130,000 tons in 2025 [1].