软商品日报：越南产量增长，白糖短期震荡运行-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar - Oscillation [1] - Cotton - Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for summer cold drinks. Recent sugar imports have increased significantly driven by the expanding price difference between domestic and international markets, but the total annual imports are still expected to be within the projected range. Extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia since July may potentially impact sugar production, which requires continuous monitoring [1][3]. - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening and flocculation stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are continuously decreasing, and with the upcoming peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices are supported [1][3]. - The recommended strategy is to mainly wait and observe [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Information - Nanning sugar spot price is 5,880.0 yuan, Kunming sugar spot price is 5,835.0 yuan, and Xinjiang cotton spot price is 15,350.0 yuan [1]. 3.2 Market Quotes - U.S. sugar closed at 15.58 with a change of 0.00%. U.S. cotton closed at 66.09 with a change of 0.00% [1]. 3.3 Supply and Demand - Sugar: Driven by summer cold - drink demand, sugar consumption has seasonally recovered, and recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the expanding price difference [1]. - Cotton: In August, high temperatures and low precipitation in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin increase the risk of heat damage to cotton. Current commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and with the approaching peak season for cotton textile, cotton prices have bottom - end support [1]. 3.4 Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Zhengzhou sugar warehouse receipts are 12,476.0, a decrease of 2.16%. Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts are 5,710.0, a decrease of 2.04% [2]. 3.5 Data Quick View - External Market Quotes: U.S. sugar remained at 15.58 from September 6th to 7th, 2025, with a change of 0.00%. U.S. cotton remained at 66.09 during the same period, with a change of 0.00% [4]. - Spot Prices: From September 4th to 5th, 2025, Nanning sugar spot price remained at 5,880.0 yuan with a change of 0.00%, Kunming sugar spot price dropped from 5,845.0 to 5,835.0 yuan, a decrease of 0.17%, cotton index 328 dropped from 3,281 to 3,280, a decrease of 0.03%, and Xinjiang cotton spot price remained at 15,350.0 yuan with a change of 0.00% [4]. - Price Difference Quick View: All price differences and basis for sugar and cotton remained unchanged from September 6th to 7th, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4]. - Import Prices: From September 4th to 5th, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA increased from 77.5 to 77.6, an increase of 0.13% [4]. - Profit Margins: Sugar import profit remained at 1,646.5 from September 4th to 5th, 2025, with a change of 0.00% [4]. - Options: The implied volatilities of SR601C5500, SR601P5500, CF601C14000, and CF601P14000 are 0.0843, 0.0815, 0.1099, and 0.1085 respectively, and the historical volatilities of SR601 and CF601 are 6.38 and 6.68 respectively [4]. - Inventory Warehouse Receipts: From September 4th to 5th, 2025, sugar warehouse receipts decreased from 12,752.0 to 12,476.0, a decrease of 2.16%, and cotton warehouse receipts decreased from 5,829.0 to 5,710.0, a decrease of 2.04% [4].