格林大华期货早盘提示-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Interval [1] - Pig: Interval [3] - Egg: High - short [3] 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the spot price stabilizes and strengthens during the transition between old and new seasons. The lower support of the futures price is the port price range converted from the new - season corn planting cost, and the upper pressure is the wheat - corn price difference. In the medium term, it fluctuates around the new - season corn drive. In the long term, it follows the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, focusing on policy guidance [1]. - Pig: In the short term, the resumption of the breeding end's slaughter rhythm puts pressure on the pig price. In the medium term, the expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year restricts the rise of the pig price. In the long term, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year if there is no epidemic [3]. - Egg: In the short and medium term, the opening of schools and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support the spot price, but the short - term rise is not overly optimistic due to lower - than - expected chicken culling and high cold - storage egg inventory. In the long term, pay attention to the culling amplitude; otherwise, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [3]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Corn Market Review - Last Friday night, the corn futures fluctuated narrowly. By the end of the night session, the 2511 contract rose 0.27% to 2225 yuan/ton [1]. Important Information - CGC Grain and Oil Trading Network will organize an auction of 193,946 tons of imported genetically - modified corn on September 9. As of September 5, the total corn inventory at the four northern ports was about 1.07 million tons, continuing the downward trend and lower than last year. The corn inventory at Guangdong Port was 630,000 tons, and some feed enterprises replenished at low prices. On the weekend, the arrival of corn at Shandong's deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, with 440 trucks arriving on the 7th, 35 more than the previous day [1]. Market Logic - Short - term: The spot price stabilizes and strengthens during the transition, with support from the new - season planting cost and pressure from the wheat - corn price difference. Medium - term: Fluctuate around the new - season corn drive. Long - term: Follow the import substitution and planting cost pricing logic, focusing on policies [1]. Trading Strategy - In late August, it was suggested to pay attention to the band - buying opportunity after the corn verified the 2150 - 2160 support. Last week, it was suggested to pay attention to the pressure at 2220 for the 2511 contract and 2200 - 2210 for the 2601 contract. This week, pay attention to whether the support is effective. If the 2511 contract stands firm at 2200 - 2220, the expected price range will move up to 2240 - 2250; if the 2601 contract stands firm at 2200, it will move up to 2220 - 2240. Otherwise, it will return to the previous 2150 - 2200 range [1]. Pig Market Review - Last Friday, the main pig futures contract weakened. The LH2511 contract fell 0.63% to 13,325 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - The pig price continued to fall over the weekend. On the 7th, the national average pig price was 13.53 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg from the 5th. The official data showed that in July 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.42 million, 103.64% of the normal level, and the number of sows culled by large - scale pig farms increased by 2.1% month - on - month. The number of new - born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, indicating an increasing pig supply in the second half of the year. On September 5, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.22 yuan/jin, narrowing by 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day. The weekly average slaughter weight on September 4 was 123.66 kg, down 0.08 kg from the previous week. On September 5, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 430 [3]. Market Logic - Short - term: The resumption of the breeding end's slaughter rhythm puts pressure on the pig price. Medium - term: The expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year restricts the price rise. Long - term: The pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year if there is no epidemic [3]. Trading Strategy - Near - month contracts operate weakly around the spot price, and far - month contracts trade on the expected difference in production capacity reduction driven by policies. For the 2511 contract, the support is at 13,200 - 13,300, and the pressure is at 13,650 - 13,750; for the 2601 contract, the support is at 13,500 - 13,600, and the pressure is at 13,800 - 14,000; for the 2603 contract, the support is at 12,800 - 12,900, and the pressure is at 13,150 - 13,200; for the 2605 contract, the support is at 13,500, and the pressure is at 13,700 - 13,800 [3]. Egg Market Review - Last Friday, the egg futures contract weakened again. The JD2510 contract fell 1.72% to 2,946 yuan/500 kg [3]. Important Information - The egg spot price was stable with a slight increase over the weekend. On the 7th, the spot price of Guantao powder eggs was 3.11 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous day. On the 5th, the inventory level remained unchanged. The average production - link inventory was 0.93 days, and the circulation - link inventory was 1.03 days. On the 5th, the average price of old hens was 4.57 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of September 4, the weekly average culling age of old hens was 495 days, one day less than the previous week. In August, the number of laying hens was about 1.365 billion, a month - on - month increase of 0.66% and a year - on - year increase of 5.98%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in September is 1.353 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8% [3]. Market Logic - Medium - and short - term: School openings and Mid - Autumn Festival stocking support the spot price, but the high - point of the price increase is not overly optimistic due to lower - than - expected chicken culling and high cold - storage egg inventory. Long - term: Pay attention to the culling amplitude. If the egg - chicken breeding profit turns positive in the third quarter and the culling is less than expected, the supply pressure may re - emerge in the fourth quarter [3]. Trading Strategy - It was previously suggested to maintain a high - short strategy for the 2510 contract. Last week, the 3050 pressure level was confirmed to be effective. Existing short positions can be held cautiously. If it effectively breaks below 2900, there will be more room for decline; otherwise, consider taking profit. For the 2512 and 2601 contracts, it was suggested to pay attention to high - short opportunities. The pressure levels of 3280 - 3300 for the 2512 contract and 3460 - 3480 for the 2601 contract were verified. Existing short positions can be held cautiously. If it breaks below the previous low, there will be more decline; otherwise, take profit. In addition, breeding enterprises can consider selling hedging opportunities to lock in profits after the 2607 and 2608 contracts rise [3].