五矿期货贵金属日报-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The significant deterioration of the US labor market, as indicated by key employment data, has strengthened market expectations for the Federal Reserve's further loose monetary policy. Even if the US CPI and PPI data in August are resilient, it is difficult to affect the Fed's interest - rate cut operation in September [2]. - During the process of the Fed's monetary policy turning loose, silver prices will have a stronger upward drive compared to gold. The current external gold - silver ratio is 87, significantly higher than the historical average of 62.1 since 1971. The market has almost fully priced in a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed in the September FOMC meeting, and there is a 55% probability of a further 25 - basis - point cut in the October meeting. The Fed may conduct more than three interest - rate cuts in the remaining FOMC meetings this year, exceeding market expectations. It is recommended to maintain a long - on - dips strategy for the precious metals sector, with a focus on the upward opportunities of silver prices. The reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold is 801 - 840 yuan/gram, and for the main contract of Shanghai silver is 9526 - 11000 yuan/kilogram [3]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Quotes - Shanghai gold rose 1.01% to 822.78 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 0.07% to 9770.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold fell 0.56% to 3633.00 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver fell 0.57% to 41.32 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was reported at 4.1%, and the US dollar index was reported at 97.88 [2]. - The closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, and inventories of various gold and silver products such as COMEX gold, LBMA gold, SHFE gold, COMEX silver, LBMA silver, and SHFE silver, as well as the changes compared with the previous trading day and their historical quantiles, are presented in detail [4][6]. Market Outlook - The US labor market has shown clear signs of deterioration. The non - farm payrolls data in August was significantly lower than expected, with multiple industries experiencing a decline in employment. This situation is in line with the statements of Powell and other Fed officials, indicating that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September [2]. - With the Fed's monetary policy becoming more accommodative, silver is expected to outperform gold. The market has priced in the Fed's interest - rate cut actions, and the Fed may cut interest rates more times than expected in the remaining meetings of this year [3]. Charts and Data Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including the relationship between gold and silver prices and various factors such as the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, open interests, and the near - far month structure of gold and silver futures contracts, as well as the internal and external price differences of gold and silver [8][11][22][54].