研究所晨会观点精萃-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Index futures are expected to be short - term oscillating and strong, with a short - term cautious long position [2][3] - Treasury bonds are expected to be short - term high - level oscillating, with cautious observation [2] - For the commodity sector, the black market is short - term oscillating and rebounding, with a short - term cautious long position; non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating, with short - term cautious observation; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, with cautious observation; precious metals are short - term high - level strong - oscillating, with a cautious long position [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the far - lower - than - expected increase in US non - farm payrolls in August and the downward revision of June data to negative have strengthened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and weakened the US dollar index. Domestically, China's official manufacturing PMI in August slightly improved but remained below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The short - term domestic market sentiment has heated up, and the risk preference has increased significantly. The market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations [2][3] - For different asset classes, the short - term macro upward drive has increased, and attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: US non - farm payrolls in August were far lower than expected, 6 - month data was revised down to negative, strengthening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, weakening the US dollar index, and the global risk preference slightly decreased [2] - Domestic: China's August official manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.4 but was below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The short - term domestic market sentiment and risk preference have increased significantly [2] - Asset Performance: Index futures are short - term oscillating and strong; treasury bonds are short - term high - level oscillating; black commodities are short - term oscillating and rebounding; non - ferrous metals are short - term oscillating; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating; precious metals are short - term high - level strong - oscillating [2] Index Futures - Driven by sectors such as batteries, energy metals, and photovoltaics, the domestic stock market rose significantly. The short - term macro upward drive has increased, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3] Black Metals - Steel: The spot and futures prices of domestic steel rebounded slightly on Friday. In the traditional peak season, the actual demand is still weak, and the market is likely to oscillate in the short term [4] - Iron Ore: The iron ore futures price was oscillating and strong on Friday, and the spot price slightly declined. The ore demand decreased due to phased production restrictions, but the steel mills are likely to resume production this week. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - Ferrosilicon/Silicon Manganese: The spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicon manganese were flat on Friday, and the futures prices rebounded significantly. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [6] - Soda Ash: The main contract of soda ash oscillated last week. With new capacity coming online, the supply pressure exists, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] - Glass: The main contract of glass oscillated last week. The supply was stable, the demand was difficult to increase significantly, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [7] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: A series of US economic data showed a slowdown. The non - farm data on Friday was lower than expected, and the copper price first rose and then fell. The domestic demand is expected to weaken marginally, and the short - term interest - rate cut expectation will support the price [8] - Aluminum: The aluminum price was strong on Friday. The social inventory increased, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [8] - Aluminum Alloy: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate and be strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9] - Tin: The combined operating rate of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased significantly. The downstream orders were light, and the inventory increased. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - Lithium Carbonate: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate both increased, and the social inventory decreased slightly. The price is expected to be strong and oscillating [10] - Industrial Silicon: The supply and demand of industrial silicon both increased. The weekly output was high, and the inventory decreased slightly. It will follow polysilicon in the short term [10] - Polysilicon: The output of polysilicon sample enterprises increased in August. With strong policy expectations, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall [11] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The unexpected non - farm data and OPEC's planned production increase have weakened the oil price. The market will focus on interest - rate cuts and demand after September [12] - Asphalt: The asphalt price followed the decline of crude oil. The supply and demand situation needs to be further observed [12] - PX: The PX price followed the decline of crude oil. It is in a tight supply situation and is expected to oscillate [13] - PTA: The downstream operating rate has recovered, but the terminal demand is limited. The supply will gradually increase, and the upward space is limited [13] - Ethylene Glycol: The port inventory decreased slightly, but the supply pressure will return. The price is expected to oscillate [13] - Short - fiber: The short - fiber price adjusted slightly. The terminal orders increased seasonally, and the upward space is limited [14] - Methanol: The supply pressure is prominent, but the fundamentals are marginally improving. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [14] - PP: The device operating rate increased, and the demand followed weakly. The price of the 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly [14] - LLDPE: The supply pressure is relieved in the short term, and the demand is slowly increasing. The price is expected to oscillate [14] Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The net long position of CBOT soybean funds has increased since September. The upcoming harvest and the change of USDA's yield forecast are the focus. The sales risk exists due to the lack of Chinese purchases [15] - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The price of US soybeans may be under pressure in September. The domestic short - term supply is excessive, but the price of Brazilian soybeans is strong. The rapeseed meal has an upward basis in the later stage [15][16] - Edible Oils: Palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term. The supply of soybean and rapeseed oil will shrink in the fourth quarter, and the inversion of the soybean - palm oil price difference is expected to narrow [16] - Corn: New - season corn has been listed in small quantities in Northeast China, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The price in North China is stable, and the futures market has rebounded [17] - Pigs: The pig price has rebounded weakly. The supply and demand will both increase in September, and the price is not expected to be overly pessimistic [17]