黄金:非农数据超预期白银:震荡调整铜:美元回落,支撑价格
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-08 02:10
- Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Non - farm data exceeded expectations [2] - Silver: In a state of oscillatory adjustment [2] - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supports the price [2] - Zinc: In range - bound oscillations [2] - Lead: Reduced inventory restricts price decline [2] - Tin: In range - bound oscillations [2] - Aluminum: Attention should be paid to the inflection point of inventory reduction [2] - Alumina: There may still be room for downward movement [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: Runs in a narrow - range oscillation [2] - Stainless steel: Due to the game between reality and expectations, steel prices may oscillate [2] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Price and Trading Volume: Yesterday, the closing prices of various gold and silver products had different degrees of increase. For example, the closing price of Comex gold 2510 was 3639.80, with a daily increase of 1.04%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts also changed. For instance, the trading volume of Comex gold 2510 increased by 313 compared with the previous day [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of gold and silver also changed. The inventory of Comex silver (in troy ounces) increased by 1,345,761 compared with the previous day [5]. - Macro and Industry News: The non - farm employment in the US in August was significantly lower than expected, and the unemployment rate reached a nearly four - year high. The market almost determined a rate cut in September, but the subsequent rate - cut debate was more complex. Trump announced that the next Fed chairman would be selected from three people. Japan's Prime Minister decided to resign. There were also some important events in China, such as the investigation of Yi Huiman and the relaxation of property purchase restrictions in Shenzhen [5][7][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of both gold and silver is 1, indicating a neutral - to - slightly - positive view [8]. Copper - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 80,140, with a daily increase of 0.46%. The trading volume and positions of the Shanghai copper main contract and the London copper 3M electronic disk changed. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract decreased by 21,812 compared with the previous day [10]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai copper and London copper decreased, and the spread of some contracts also changed. For example, the LME copper cash - 3M spread was - 68.04, with a decrease of 0.88 compared with the previous day [10]. - Macro and Industry News: The non - farm employment in the US in August was significantly lower than expected, and the market expected a rate cut in September. An African copper mine planned to resume production next year, and the copper production in Chile in July increased slightly [10][12]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of copper is 0, indicating a neutral view [12]. Zinc - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 22155, with a daily increase of 0.16%. The trading volume and positions of the Shanghai zinc main contract and the London zinc 3M electronic disk changed. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract decreased by 65567 compared with the previous day [13]. - News: The non - farm employment in the US in August was significantly lower than expected, and the market expected a rate cut in September. There were also some views on the Fed's policy [14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view [15]. Lead - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16900, with a daily increase of 0.24%. The trading volume and positions of the Shanghai lead main contract and the London lead 3M electronic disk changed. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract increased by 8082 compared with the previous day [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai lead and London lead decreased. For example, the inventory of Shanghai lead decreased by 954 tons compared with the previous day [16]. - News: The non - farm employment in the US in August was significantly lower than expected, and the market expected a rate cut in September [17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lead is 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Tin - Price and Trading Volume: The closing price of the Shanghai tin main contract was 272,460, with a daily increase of 0.16%. The trading volume and positions of the Shanghai tin main contract and the London tin 3M electronic disk changed. For example, the trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract decreased by 10,873 compared with the previous day [20]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of Shanghai tin decreased, and the spread of some contracts also changed. For example, the LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was 63, with a decrease of 35 compared with the previous day [20]. - Macro and Industry News: Similar to other metals, there were important events such as the non - farm employment situation in the US and policy - related news in other countries [21]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral view [24]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the Shanghai aluminum main contract, the Shanghai alumina main contract, and the aluminum alloy main contract changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 20695, with an increase of 90 compared with T - 1 [25]. - Inventory and Spread: The inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and other related products, as well as the spread of some contracts, changed. For example, the LME aluminum cash - 3M spread was 1.86, with a decrease of 1.65 compared with T - 1 [25]. - Comprehensive News: Trump adjusted the global tariff policy, and some key commodities were exempted from tariffs. The US appellate court ruled that most of Trump's global tariffs were illegal, but the implementation was postponed [27]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of aluminum is 0, alumina is - 1, and cast aluminum alloy is 0 [27]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Price and Trading Volume: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the Shanghai nickel main contract and the stainless steel main contract changed. For example, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 121,310, with an increase of 460 compared with T - 1 [29]. - Industry Chain Data: The prices and spreads of various products in the nickel and stainless - steel industry chains changed. For example, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 946, with an increase of 1 compared with T - 1 [29]. - Macro and Industry News: There were some events related to nickel trade and production in Canada and Indonesia, such as the potential export suspension of nickel in Canada and the production start and environmental issues in Indonesian nickel projects [29][30]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0 [34].