原油：OPEC+加速增产再次抑制反弹

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the current situation of the international crude oil market, including price dynamics, market trends, and key trade information. OPEC+ plans to increase production, which may suppress the rebound of crude oil prices. The trend strength of crude oil is currently neutral [1][7][8]. 3. Section Summaries Global Benchmark Crude Oil Price Dynamics - Dubai (November): Price range is $71.52 - 71.53/bbl, with a mid - point of $71.525/bbl and a daily change of -$0.43. Asian demand weakness and OPEC+增产预期 suppress the Middle - East benchmark price [2]. - Brent (November): Price range is $67.50 - 67.52/bbl, with a mid - point of $67.51/bbl and a daily change of +$1.62. North Sea oilfield maintenance season supports the European benchmark, but high inventories limit the increase [2]. - WTI (October): Price range is $63.96 - 63.98/bbl, with a mid - point of $63.97/bbl and a daily change of +$1.32. Record - high US crude oil exports and three - year low Cushing inventories provide support [2]. - Urals (CIF Augusta): Price range is $64.45 - 64.49/bbl, with a mid - point of $64.47/bbl and a daily change of +$0.07. Russian seaborne exports have recovered, but face EU sanctions risks, and the price spread remains at a discount [2]. Product Oil Market Price and Dynamics - Gasoline (RBOB): The current cracking spread is $4.58/bbl. Despite strong demand at the end of the summer driving season, rising ethanol blending costs compress profits [3]. - Diesel (ULSD): The current cracking spread is $5.43/bbl. Global industrial activity recovery and low - sulfur marine fuel demand drive the market [3]. - Fuel Oil: The current cracking spread is -$2.52/bbl. The expectation of IMO2025 regulations leads to an overstock of high - sulfur oil inventories [3]. Cross - Regional Comparison - Brent - Dubai: The spread is $4.08 - 4.10/bbl, with a weekly change of +$0.27 and a monthly change of +$0.08. The East - West arbitrage window is close to closing, and the surplus of light oil in the Atlantic Basin suppresses the spread [4]. - WTI MEH - Brent: The spread is -$1.45/bbl, with a weekly change of -$0.18 and a monthly change of -$0.47. US shale oil production increase and European refinery autumn maintenance work together [4]. - Urals - Dubai: The spread is -$7.05/bbl, with a weekly change of +$0.25 and a monthly change of +$0.93. The narrowing discount of Russian oil reflects the adjustment of Asian buyers' procurement strategies [4]. Key Crude Oil Trade Dynamics - US GC - China: The trading volume is 590 MB/D, and the arbitrage space is -$7.89/bbl. Exhausted quotas of Chinese private refineries and high VLCC freight rates slow down procurement and suppress arbitrage [4]. - Middle East - Singapore: The trading volume is 814 MB/D, and the arbitrage space is -$2.56/bbl. Consecutive three - month increases in Saudi OSP official prices lead Asian buyers to turn to West African crude oil as a substitute [4]. - North Sea - Mediterranean: The trading volume is 254 MB/D, and the arbitrage space is $1.37/bbl. Italian refineries rush to buy light low - sulfur crude oil to meet new environmental regulations [4]. Different Oil Types Comparison - Basrah Light: API degree is 34.7, sulfur content is 2.8%, and the premium is $0.45/bbl. The narrowing premium of medium - sulfur oil reflects the reduction of complex refinery capacity [5]. - Es Sider: API degree is 37.2, sulfur content is 3.9%, and the premium is $0.55/bbl. High vanadium content increases processing costs, and European buyers demand additional discounts [5]. - Sakhalin Blend: API degree is 45.5, sulfur content is 0.6%, and the premium is $1.2/bbl. The substitution effect of Northeast Asian LPG raw materials boosts the premium of light low - sulfur crude oil [5]. Other Market News - OPEC+ announced that eight countries will adjust production by 137,000 barrels per day starting from October 2025, and will gradually increase production by 1.65 million barrels per month before August 2026 [8]. - Ukraine's drone force commander said that Ukraine attacked Russia's "Friendship" oil pipeline [8].