国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250908

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, and gives corresponding trend judgments and operation suggestions [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Market Judgment: Downstream construction restart expectations support raw material valuations, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][4][5] - Fundamental Data: The futures price closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan or 0.25%. The open interest decreased by 5,586 lots to 501,397 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Super Special (56.5%) increased by 3.0 yuan to 688.0 yuan/ton, while the price of PB (61.5%) decreased by 3.0 yuan to 782.0 yuan/ton [4] - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - Market Judgment: Affected by market sentiment, both show a strong and volatile trend, with trend strengths of 0 (neutral) for rebar and 1 (slightly strong) for hot-rolled coils [2][8][9] - Fundamental Data: The rebar futures contract RB2510 closed at 3,054 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 0.79%, and the open interest decreased by 51,071 lots. The hot-rolled coil futures contract HC2510 closed at 3,366 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 1.39%, and the open interest decreased by 29,686 lots. Spot prices generally increased slightly [9] - Macro and Industry News: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, a slight increase of 1.6% from the previous month. The export average price was 702.2 US dollars/ton, a slight increase of 2.2% from the previous month. From January to July, the cumulative export of steel was 67.983 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and the export average price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Judgment: Market anti-involution information has heated up again, both showing a strong and volatile trend, with trend strengths of 1 (slightly strong) [2][13][16] - Fundamental Data: The ferrosilicon 2511 contract closed at 5,598 yuan/ton, up 102 yuan, and the silicomanganese 2511 contract closed at 5,830 yuan/ton, up 112 yuan. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [13] - Macro and Industry News: Multiple steel mills have determined ferrosilicon and silicomanganese procurement prices and quantities. South32 announced the offer prices for South African semi-carbonate lump ore and Australian lump ore in October 2025, both up 0.05 US dollars/ton-degree from the previous month. As of September 5, the total manganese ore inventory was 440.48 million tons, a slight increase of 0.1 million tons from the previous month [14][17] Coke and Coking Coal - Market Judgment: Expectations are fluctuating, showing a wide-range volatile trend, with trend strengths of 0 (neutral) [2][18][19] - Fundamental Data: The coking coal futures contract JM2601 closed at 1,094.5 yuan/ton, down 11.5 yuan or 1.0%, and the coke futures contract J2601 closed at 1,581.5 yuan/ton, down 12.5 yuan or 0.8%. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [19] - Macro and Industry News: On September 4, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation issued the "Action Plan for Steady Growth of the Electronic Information Manufacturing Industry from 2025 - 2026" [19] Logs - Market Judgment: Weak and volatile, with a trend strength of 0 (neutral) [2][21][24] - Fundamental Data: The prices, trading volumes, and open interests of log futures contracts 2509, 2511, and 2601 all showed different degrees of decline. Spot prices and various spreads also showed corresponding changes [22] - Macro and Industry News: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [24]