黑色建材日报-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market has entered the peak season, but demand is weak, with steel mill profits shrinking and the market showing weak characteristics. If demand fails to recover, prices may decline further. Attention should be paid to terminal demand recovery and cost - side support [3]. - The "anti - involution" policy's impact on the black sector depends on its implementation and effectiveness. The focus in the near future is on real - world demand verification, and there is a risk of downward price adjustment due to potential mismatches between supply and demand [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3143 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton (0.834%); the registered warehouse receipts were 230,131 tons, up 7,582 tons; the main contract position was 1.737894 million lots, up 1462 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3340 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan/ton (0.814%); the registered warehouse receipts were 24,459 tons, unchanged; the main contract position was 1.300035 million lots, up 16,610 lots [2]. - Market Analysis: The overall commodity market atmosphere is good, but steel prices are under pressure. Macro - level news has boosted the market, but export is weak. Rebar's apparent demand is weak and inventory accumulation pressure is high; hot - rolled coil has significant production cuts, and overall demand is neutral to weak with rising inventory [3]. Iron Ore - Price and Position Data: The iron ore main contract (I2601) closed at 789.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.25% (- 2.00), and the position changed to 501,400 lots. The weighted position was 815,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 782 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 41.73 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.02% [5]. - Market Analysis: Overseas iron ore shipments have increased, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and a significant increase in Brazilian shipments. The near - end arrival volume has increased. The daily average molten iron output has decreased, and the steel mill profitability rate has continued to decline. Port inventory has increased, while steel mill imported ore inventory has decreased [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Price and Position Data: On September 5th, the manganese silicon main contract (SM509) closed up 1.99% at 5844 yuan/ton; the ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed up 1.86% at 5598 yuan/ton [8]. - Market Analysis: The "anti - involution" rumor has affected the market, but the focus in the future is on real - world demand verification. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the black sector's sentiment, especially that of coking coal [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Price and Position Data: The closing price of the industrial silicon main contract (SI2511) was 8820 yuan/ton, up 3.58% (+ 305). The weighted contract position increased by 11,979 lots to 493,883 lots. The closing price of the polysilicon main contract (PS2511) was 56,735 yuan/ton, up 8.70% (+ 4540), and the weighted contract position increased by 55,722 lots to 372,715 lots [12][15]. - Market Analysis: Industrial silicon is in a "weak reality" situation, and its price may fluctuate. Polysilicon is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" pattern, and its price may continue to rise if capacity integration makes progress [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - Price and Inventory Data: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged; the national floating glass sample enterprise inventory was 63.05 million weight cases, up 0.77% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1210 yuan, up 20 yuan; the domestic soda ash factory inventory was 1.8221 million tons, up 0.15% [18][19]. - Market Analysis: The glass market is stable with general trading, and prices have limited adjustment space. Soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term and gradually increase in the long term, but the upside is restricted by demand [18][19].