股指期货：持续震荡蓄势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the market adjusted last week, the core drivers of the upward trend, such as the repair of market expectations, the improvement of risk appetite, and the increase in stock market allocation willingness brought about by long - term capital market reforms, have not changed substantially, so the market is unlikely to experience a trend - like callback [2] - The news of the former chairman of the CSRC being investigated indicates that the improvement of the capital market system is still ongoing, and the lower - than - expected US non - farm payrolls have further increased the expectation of Fed easing, which is conducive to sentiment repair [2] - The policy aims to anchor the market value and prevent the breeding of financial risks under disorderly speculation. Before the improvement of corporate earnings becomes more obvious, it is more difficult to boost valuations. The market is more likely to fluctuate in a moderately strong way, and the previous unilateral bull - market trend is less likely [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the market experienced its first significant shock since the current upward trend, with most major indexes falling except for the ChiNext Index. In terms of sectors, National Defense and Military Industry, Computer, and Non - Banking Finance led the decline, with National Defense and Military Industry falling by over 10%; Power Equipment, Comprehensive, and Non - Ferrous Metals led the gains [1] - The direct trigger for the market decline may be the foreign media reports about regulatory risk - prevention statements. The adjustment of the market under the previous sentiment - driven and valuation - boosting market was mainly affected by internal and external factors, with internal factors being the main ones, such as the weakening of pro - growth policies and strengthened supervision [1] - Overseas, the breakthrough of precious metals and the rise of bond yields last week increased overseas risk expectations, which also disturbed the performance of domestic indexes [1] Strategy Recommendations - Short - term Strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM can be set at 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4] - Trend Strategy: Adopt the idea of going long after a pullback. It is expected that the core operating range of the IF2509 main contract is between 4323 and 4546 points; the IH2509 main contract is between 2867 and 3000 points; the IC2509 main contract is between 6692 and 7140 points; the IM2509 main contract is between 6973 and 7443 points [4] - Cross - variety Strategy: Mainly stay on the sidelines [5] Spot Market Review - Global Stock Indexes: Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.32%, the S&P 500 rose 0.33%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.14%. In Europe, the UK's FTSE 100 rose 0.23%, Germany's DAX fell 1.28%, and France's CAC40 fell 0.38%. In the Asia - Pacific market, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.7% and the Hang Seng Index rose 1.36% [8] - Domestic Main Indexes: Most domestic main indexes fell last week, with only the ChiNext Index rising [1][8] Index Futures Market Review - Contract Performance: Last week, the IM main contract of index futures had the largest decline, and the IC main contract had the largest amplitude. Both the trading volume and open interest of index futures declined [11] - Basis and Cross - variety Ratios: The report also presented the basis (futures - spot) trends of index futures main contracts and the cross - variety ratios of index futures main contracts [16] Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 29, the TTM P/E ratio of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.54 times, the TTM P/E ratio of the CSI 300 Index was 14.12 times, the TTM P/E ratio of the SSE 50 Index was 11.9 times, the TTM P/E ratio of the CSI 500 Index was 33.72 times, and the TTM P/E ratio of the CSI 1000 Index was 47.35 times [17][18] Market Capital Flow Review - The report presented charts of the margin trading balance in the two markets, the share of newly established equity - biased funds, the decline of capital interest rates last week, and the net capital withdrawal by the central bank last week [19]