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估值回调暂告段落,转债进入震荡慢涨阶段
Orient Securities·2025-09-08 02:34

Group 1 - The report indicates that after experiencing the largest valuation correction of the year, convertible bonds have risen against the trend, suggesting a repair in valuation. This correction was anticipated following a sustained increase in valuations, and historically, in a stable equity trend, the opportunities for convertible bonds to recover from valuation corrections outweigh the risks, despite current high valuation levels. The short-term outlook suggests that the valuation correction for convertible bonds has come to a pause, unless there is a significant fluctuation in equities [5][8][15]. - The key to the future performance of convertible bonds lies in the continued upward potential of equities and the demand for fixed income plus strategies. It is expected that the ability to follow the upward trend may weaken. In a slow bull market for equities, the trend for convertible bonds remains unchanged, but the momentum has shifted from a rapid increase driven by both underlying stock performance and valuation to a phase of slow and steady growth, necessitating strategic adjustments, including timely profit-taking on some overvalued convertible bonds and focusing on trading opportunities [5][8][15]. - The equity market experienced fluctuations, initially declining before rebounding after touching the 20-day moving average, with significant volatility observed. The report maintains a judgment of a slow bull market, suggesting that short-term corrections are more beneficial than detrimental, and there is no need for excessive pessimism [5][8][15]. Group 2 - The report reviews the performance of the convertible bond market, noting that from September 1 to September 5, most market indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.83%. However, the ChiNext Index increased by 2.35%. The sectors leading the gains included electric power equipment, while defense, computing, and non-bank financials lagged behind. The average daily trading volume decreased to 2.60 trillion yuan [11][12]. - The report highlights that last week, convertible bonds rose against the trend, with a valuation repair noted. The average daily trading volume significantly decreased to 82.83 billion yuan. The China Securities Convertible Bond Index increased by 0.61%, while the parity center declined by 1.6% to 109.4 yuan, and the conversion premium rate increased by 2.4% to 21.1%. It was observed that mid-to-high-rated and large-cap convertible bonds performed better, while high-priced and AAA-rated convertible bonds underperformed [15][16].