Tianfeng Securities·2025-09-08 02:34Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690) is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][15]. Core Views - The report indicates that short-term competition is putting pressure on profits, but there is optimism for long-term profitability recovery due to efficiency advantages [5]. - Meituan's core local business revenue for Q2 2025 was 653.5 billion yuan, which was below Bloomberg consensus expectations by 3.3% [1]. - New business revenue reached 264.9 billion yuan, exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations by 2.1% [4]. Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In Q2 2025, Meituan reported total revenue of 918.4 billion yuan, which was 2.0% lower than Bloomberg consensus expectations. EBIT was 2.3 billion yuan, falling short of expectations by 97.2%. Adjusted net profit was approximately 14.9 billion yuan, also below expectations by 84.8% [1]. Core Local Business - The core local business faced competitive pressures, resulting in lower-than-expected revenue and profit. Revenue was 653.5 billion yuan, with delivery service revenue at 236.6 billion yuan, commission revenue at 249.5 billion yuan, and online marketing revenue at 135.5 billion yuan. Operating profit was 37.2 billion yuan, which was below expectations by 69.0% [1]. Food Delivery - The company expanded its user base and improved core user engagement and transaction frequency. Collaborations with restaurant merchants led to innovations that benefited both small and chain restaurants. The Meituan Flash Purchase service saw strong growth in order volume and total transaction value [2]. In-store and Travel - Meituan is expanding into new categories and innovating supply models while penetrating lower-tier markets. The company is enhancing digital transformation and standardization for merchants, providing integrated solutions to improve operational efficiency [3]. New Business - New business revenue was 264.9 billion yuan, with an operating loss of 1.88 billion yuan, which was better than expectations. The company is optimizing its grocery retail strategy and expanding its overseas presence with Keeta [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that while short-term competition may impact profit performance, Meituan's strong merchant base and user reviews provide a solid competitive moat. Future profitability in the core local business is expected to improve, and new businesses are anticipated to continue narrowing losses. Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3700 billion, 4356 billion, and 4939 billion yuan respectively, with net profits of 9 billion, 216 billion, and 465 billion yuan [5].