Report Industry Investment Rating - No clear industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View of the Report - The caustic soda market will continue to fluctuate widely in the short term. Currently, there is insufficient driving force, with the market in a state of expected game. There is no sufficient driving force for an upward trend, but there is also no driving force for a downward trend in the spot market for now [1][3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - 01 contract futures price is 2610, the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda spot price in Shandong is 870, the Shandong 32% caustic soda spot price converted to the futures contract is 2719, and the basis is 109 [2]. - In Shandong, the liquid caustic soda market remained stable overall. As orders were shipped, it temporarily supported the market. In southwestern Shandong, the high - price sales of individual enterprises slowed down, and prices declined slightly. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries and the inventory of caustic soda plants [2]. Market Condition Analysis - The main obstacles to the rise of caustic soda come from exports and alumina. In terms of exports, the new production capacity of Vinythai and high supply in Japan and South Korea have led to sufficient supply in Southeast Asia. The export profit has not expanded, the export orders have not improved, and the price difference between 50% and 32% caustic soda is weak, resulting in insufficient driving force for the rise of caustic soda. In terms of alumina, the high - production and high - inventory pattern has continuously compressed profits, and the supply of marginal production capacity may be affected by profits in the future. Although there are expected new production capacities of 3.6 million tons in Guangxi by the end of this year and 2 million tons of Orient Hope in early next year, the market is difficult to achieve a resonance between futures and spot before the stockpiling starts [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [4].
烧碱:市场短期仍宽幅震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-08 02:33