国新国证期货早报-20250908

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - On September 5, 2025, the A-share market had a significant rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.24%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 3.89%, and the ChiNext Index up 6.55%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2304.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 239.6 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The prices of various futures products showed different trends, affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, production costs, and market sentiment. For example, some futures were in a weak - shock state, while others had short - term rebounds or declines [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Product Stock Index Futures - On September 5, the three major A - share indexes rose sharply. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3812.51 points, up 1.24%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12590.56 points, up 3.89%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2958.18 points, up 6.55%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2304.7 billion yuan, down 239.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index closed at 4460.32, up 95.12 [1][2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 5, the coke weighted index rebounded strongly, closing at 1651.0, up 74.3; the coking coal weighted index fluctuated widely, closing at 1160.4 yuan, up 72.1. The eighth round of coke price increase by coking plants was resisted by steel mills. Coking profits improved, leading to increased production enthusiasm. The coking coal market showed some looseness, with an increase in the auction failure rate [3][4][5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The sugarcane crop prospects in India and Thailand are favorable after heavy rain this year, and Brazilian sugar mills tend to produce more sugar. Negative factors such as Brazilian corn ethanol have a great impact on Brazilian sugar exports. The US sugar market oscillated slightly lower on September 5, while the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract rebounded slightly due to technical factors and bargain - hunting [6][7]. Rubber - Due to a large short - term increase, the Shanghai rubber futures oscillated and consolidated overnight on September 5. As of September 5, the natural rubber inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 7027 tons to 205360 tons, and the futures warrants decreased by 16410 tons to 162230 tons. The 20 - grade rubber inventory increased by 1614 tons to 50400 tons, and the futures warrants increased by 907 tons to 46569 tons [7]. Soybean Meal - On September 5, the CBOT soybean futures closed down. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated. The M2601 main contract closed at 3067 yuan/ton, up 0.62%. The domestic soybean meal supply is expected to increase in the short term, but there may be a supply gap in the first quarter of 2026, which may support the price [8]. Live Pigs - On September 5, the live pig futures prices were in a weak oscillation. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13325 yuan/ton, down 0.3%. The increase in the supply of group enterprises in the short term and the slow recovery of terminal consumption have put pressure on the futures prices. In the long term, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized [9]. Palm Oil - On the night of September 5, palm oil futures oscillated downward due to the reduction of long - position holdings by some investors. The main contract P2601 closed at 9440, down 0.9% from the previous trading day [9]. Shanghai Copper - On the night of September 5, the Shanghai copper main contract showed a weak pattern of opening high and moving low. In the short term, it may continue to oscillate weakly and test support levels. Before the macro - demand improves substantially, the price is difficult to get out of the weak pattern [10]. Logs - On September 5, the 2511 log futures opened at 796, with a minimum of 792.5, a maximum of 803, and closed at 800, with a reduction of 701 lots. The futures price was below the 60 - day moving average, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the 800 mark [10]. Iron Ore - On September 5, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed up 0.77%, at 789.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment has rebounded to a high this year, and the arrival volume has also increased. The short - term iron ore price is in an oscillating trend [12]. Asphalt - On September 5, the asphalt 2511 main contract oscillated and declined, down 1.15%, closing at 3437 yuan. The short - term asphalt price is mainly in an oscillating state [12]. Cotton - On the night of September 5, the Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 13925 yuan/ton. As of September 8, the base - price quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was at least 1160 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 119 lots compared with the previous trading day [13]. Steel - The anti - involution hype expectation has driven up the prices of coking coal and steel. The steel fundamentals are currently weak, but the market still has expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season demand. The short - term steel futures prices are relatively strong, but attention should be paid to the authenticity of the anti - involution expectation [13]. Alumina - The termination of EGA's bauxite business in Guinea has little impact on the bauxite supply. The alumina fundamentals are weak, with a slight increase in supply and stable demand [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The alumina supply is relatively loose, and the electrolytic aluminum smelting profit is good. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is gradually recovering [14].