氧化铝及电解铝月报：关注去库节奏，铝价偏好-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Alumina: After a period of relatively high - level operation, the supply surplus in the alumina market has gradually affected the spot market. With the accumulation of social inventory and a significant increase in exchange warehouse receipts, the spot price has declined. In the third quarter, new production capacity in Guangxi is expected to be put into operation, so the supply pressure remains high. Given the stable electrolytic aluminum production capacity on the consumption side, the market balance is under pressure, and the price is expected to remain weak. However, the cost of bauxite and potential policy support will limit the downside [3][63]. - Electrolytic Aluminum: The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum has slightly increased, but the proportion of molten aluminum has risen by 1.3% to 75.07% in August, reducing the supply of aluminum ingots. Some aluminum - processing sectors have shown signs of entering the peak consumption season, with an increase in the operating rate. The power and new - energy vehicle sectors are expected to grow well, and exports remain resilient, while the real - estate and photovoltaic sectors are sluggish. The inventory accumulation rate of aluminum ingots has slowed down, and there are occasional destocking periods. Overall, the supply - demand balance has improved marginally, and aluminum prices are expected to rise during the peak season. However, the upside potential is limited, and the price increase may be volatile [3][65]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Alumina Futures: In August, the price of alumina futures first rose from 3,160 yuan/ton to a maximum of 3,384 yuan/ton and then gradually declined to 3,006 yuan/ton. It closed at 3,036 yuan/ton at the end of the month, down 4.8% [9]. - Shanghai Aluminum Futures: In August, the price of Shanghai aluminum futures fluctuated but generally trended upward. It rose from a minimum of 20,365 yuan/ton to 20,835 yuan/ton due to the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut and then declined. It closed at 20,740 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 1.17% [10]. - London Aluminum Futures: In August, London aluminum futures fluctuated due to the changing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. It remained within the previous month's trading range, closing at 2,619 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, up 2.2% [10]. 3.2 Macro 3.2.1 Overseas - Tariff Policy: The US has made multiple tariff adjustments, including expanding the list of critical minerals, imposing tariffs on EU products, and increasing tariffs on Indian goods, which have a negative impact on global trade [12]. - Fed Policy: The Fed's July meeting minutes signaled a hawkish stance, but Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium was dovish, increasing the expectation of a September interest - rate cut. However, the personnel change and concerns about the Fed's independence have affected market expectations [12]. - Economic Data: In July, the US CPI and PPI increased, the unemployment rate rebounded in August, and the GDP growth rate in the second quarter was higher than expected. The manufacturing PMI in August reached a new high since 2022. In Europe, the ECB's inflation risk is balanced, and the economic growth in the eurozone may slow down in the third quarter [13][15][16]. 3.2.2 Domestic - Economic Data: In July, China's industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social retail sales growth rates all declined, and the CPI was flat year - on - year. The M2 and M1 growth rates increased, and the new special - purpose bonds issuance accelerated [17][18]. - Policy: Beijing and Shanghai relaxed property - purchase restrictions in August, and the central government promoted the development of urban agglomerations and the renovation of old urban communities [18]. 3.3 Alumina Market Analysis 3.3.1 Bauxite - Domestic Bauxite: In August, the supply of domestic bauxite remained tight, and the price was stable. The high - price bauxite may face limited acceptance due to the declining alumina price [20]. - Imported Bauxite: In July, China imported 20.063 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 33.75%. However, due to the rainy season in Guinea and policy uncertainties, the import volume may decrease in the short term [20]. 3.3.2 Alumina Supply - Domestic Production: In July, China's alumina production was 7.704 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.13%. It is expected that the production in August will be about 7.76 million tons. The supply in the north is relatively loose, while that in the south is still tight [23]. - Import and Export: In July, China exported 229,400 tons of alumina and imported 125,900 tons, with a net export of 104,000 tons. In August, the export window remained closed, and the import window opened, but the net - export pattern is expected to continue [24]. 3.3.3 Alumina Inventory and Spot - Inventory: As of the end of August, the alumina futures exchange inventory was 98,000 tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from the end of the previous month. The inventory has been accumulating [25]. - Spot: In August, the alumina futures price dropped rapidly, and the spot price followed, with the spot premium increasing from 28 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 247 yuan/ton at the end of the month [25]. 3.3.4 Alumina Cost and Profit - Cost: In July, the average fully - cost of the alumina industry in China was 2,933.21 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.78%. The decrease in the price of liquid caustic soda led to a slight reduction in costs [26]. - Profit: With the decline in the alumina price, the profit margin has narrowed [26]. 3.3.5 Alumina Outlook The supply of alumina is expected to remain under pressure, but the cost of bauxite and potential policy support will limit the downside [3][63]. 3.4 Electrolytic Aluminum Market Analysis 3.4.1 Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Domestic Production: In July, China's primary aluminum production was 3.7396 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.82%. It is expected that the production in August will be about 3.745 million tons [37]. - Overseas Production: In July, the global (excluding China) electrolytic aluminum production was 2.406 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.88%. It is expected that the production in August will be 2.411 million tons [38]. - Import and Export: In July, China imported 248,300 tons of primary aluminum and exported 41,000 tons, with a net import of 207,300 tons. The import window is expected to remain closed [