宝城期货煤焦早报-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the short - term, medium - term, and intraday periods, both JM2601 and J2601 are expected to oscillate, with an intraday bias towards a stronger oscillation. The core logic for JM2601 is the reappearance of positive supply expectations leading to an upward rebound, while for J2601, it is the reappearance of cost support resulting in a strong performance [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the JM2601 contract of coking coal, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all expected to oscillate, with an intraday bias towards a stronger oscillation. The reference view is oscillation, and the core logic is the reappearance of positive supply expectations driving an upward rebound [2]. - For the J2601 contract of coke, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends are all expected to oscillate, with an intraday bias towards a stronger oscillation. The reference view is oscillation, and the core logic is the reappearance of cost support enabling a strong performance [2]. 3.2 Price Market Driving Logic of Main Varieties - Commodity Futures Black Sector 3.2.1 Coking Coal (JM) - The intraday view is a stronger oscillation, and the medium - term view is oscillation. The reference view is oscillation. This week, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 693,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 60,000 tons; the daily output of coke was 1.1223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 16,200 tons; the daily output of molten iron was 2.2884 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 112,900 tons. The supply - demand data met the market's bearish expectations. However, the risk of the second - round fermentation of the "anti - involution" policy is being released, and strong expectations are driving the coking coal futures to strengthen again. The subsequent price trend of coking coal will depend on whether the coal industry association and enterprises will introduce new policies or self - regulatory measures to support the "anti - involution" work [6]. 3.2.2 Coke (J) - The intraday view is a stronger oscillation, and the medium - term view is oscillation. The reference view is oscillation. At the end of August, the eighth round of price increase for coke was blocked, and on September 1st, some steel mills initiated the first round of price reduction, intensifying the industry chain game. The fundamental situation of coke has not improved significantly. The second - round fermentation of the "anti - involution" policy has warmed up the market sentiment, and the strong expectations on the cost side are supporting the upward rebound of coke futures. However, the sustainability of the upward movement also depends on whether specific policies will be introduced in the future [7].