沥青：弱势运行，关注山东出货

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is operating weakly, and attention should be paid to shipments in Shandong. The trend strength of asphalt is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: On September 7, 2025, the closing price of BU2510 was 3,467 yuan/ton, down 0.03%, and the night - session closing price was 3,426 yuan/ton, down 1.18%. The closing price of BU2511 was 3,437 yuan/ton, down 0.15%, and the night - session closing price was 3,396 yuan/ton, down 1.19%. The trading volume of BU2510 was 86,667 lots, a decrease of 41,415 lots, and the open interest was 54,826 lots, a decrease of 16,035 lots. The trading volume of BU2511 was 248,029 lots, an increase of 58,519 lots, and the open interest was 241,397 lots, an increase of 3,727 lots. The total market asphalt warehouse receipts were 65,360 lots, with no change [1] - Spread Data: The basis (Shandong - 10) was 63 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan from the previous day; the 10 - 11 inter - period spread was 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the Shandong - South China spread was 0, a decrease of 10; the East China - South China spread was 170 yuan/ton, with no change [1] - Spot Market Data: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,700 yuan/ton, with no change. As of September 4, the refinery operating rate was 40.22%, an increase of 6.69% from September 1; the refinery inventory rate was 26.45%, a decrease of 0.29% from September 1 [1] 3.2 Market Information - Production: From August 29 to September 4, 2025, the weekly total output of domestic asphalt was 526,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 tons (5.4%) and a year - on - year increase of 90,000 tons (20.6%). The cumulative output from January to September was 2.1669 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 201,400 tons (10.2%) [10] - Inventory: As of September 4, 2025, the total inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 717,000 tons, a 4.1% increase from September 1. The refinery warehouses in the East China region had obvious inventory accumulation. The total inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.709 million tons, a 0.6% decrease from September 1. The social warehouses in the Northeast region had obvious inventory reduction [10]