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中国医药1H25业绩回顾:创新药保持强势,行业需求疲弱
Zhao Yin Guo Ji·2025-09-08 02:44

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Outperform" indicating that the sector is expected to perform better than the market benchmark over the next 12 months [57]. Core Insights - The overall performance of the pharmaceutical industry in China remains weak, with average revenue growth of 1.6% and average net profit declining by 3.2% in the first half of 2025. This is a deterioration compared to the full year of 2024, where revenue growth was 3.2% and net profit declined by 1.4% [5][6]. - The innovative drug sector (Biotech) continues to show strong performance, with an average revenue growth of 35% in 1H25, supported by favorable medical insurance payment policies and successful overseas licensing deals [4][9]. - The pharmaceutical sector (Pharma) shows stable performance with an average revenue growth of 0.8% and net profit growth of 3.4% in 1H25, benefiting from a rich pipeline of innovative drugs [4][9]. - The CXO sector has seen significant recovery, with average revenue growth of 15.5% and net profit growth of 32.7% in 1H25, driven by strong demand for commercial production [37]. - The medical device sector is experiencing mixed performance, particularly the IVD segment, which saw a revenue decline of 14% in 1H25 due to policy impacts and price competition [14][8]. Summary by Sections Pharmaceutical Industry Performance - The average revenue growth for A-share and Hong Kong-listed pharmaceutical companies was 1.6% in 1H25, with net profit declining by 3.2% compared to 2024 [5][6]. - The innovative drug segment remains robust, with a 35% revenue increase, while the traditional generic drug business is under pressure [4][9]. CXO Sector - The CXO sector's revenue grew by 15.5% and net profit by 32.7% in 1H25, largely due to low base effects and strong demand for commercial production services [37]. Medical Devices - The IVD segment faced significant challenges, with a 14% revenue decline in 1H25, attributed to policy changes and competitive pricing pressures [14][8]. - Despite some recovery in medical device tenders, the overall market remains under pressure due to ongoing inventory clearance and competitive dynamics [14]. Future Outlook - The pharmaceutical industry is expected to benefit from the optimization of domestic procurement policies and the continued growth of innovative drug exports, although caution is advised regarding stock price increases [38]. - The report recommends buying shares in companies such as Sangamo Therapeutics (1530 HK), Junshi Biosciences (2367 HK), WuXi AppTec (2268 HK), and others due to their strong growth potential [38].