国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250908

Report Date - The report is dated September 8, 2025 [4][11] Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Core Views - Nickel is expected to trade in a narrow range [2][4] - Stainless steel prices may oscillate as the market weighs current conditions against future expectations [2][5] - Lithium carbonate is likely to see both supply and demand increase, with prices trending weakly and fluctuating [2][11] - For industrial silicon, market sentiment changes should be monitored [2][14] - For polysilicon, attention should be paid to the registration of warehouse receipts [2][15] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 121,310 yuan, down 390 yuan from T - 5; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,850 yuan, up 35 yuan from T - 5. The trading volume of the SHFE nickel main contract was 84,018 lots, a significant decrease compared to previous periods, while the stainless - steel main contract's trading volume was 153,413 lots, showing an increase [5] - Macro and Industry News: Canada's Ontario Province may halt nickel exports to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production phase; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; the approved 2025 production target of Indonesian nickel miners is higher than that of 2024; some nickel - iron production lines in an Indonesian industrial park have suspended production due to losses; a Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to production reduction targets [5][6][7][8] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 73,880 yuan, up 880 yuan from T - 1; the 2511 contract closed at 74,260 yuan, up 840 yuan from T - 1. The trading volume of the 2511 contract was 802,006 lots, showing a significant increase. The spot - 2509 basis was 870 yuan, down 1,130 yuan from T - 1 [11] - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased; Kodal Minerals received approval to export 12.5 tons of lithium spodumene concentrate from a Mali project [12] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a weakly bearish outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The Si2511 contract closed at 8,820 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan from T - 1; the PS2511 contract closed at 56,735 yuan/ton, up 4,540 yuan from T - 1. The industrial silicon social inventory (including warehouse receipts) was 53.7 million tons, with a decrease compared to previous periods; the polysilicon factory inventory was 21.1 million tons, also showing a decline [15] - Macro and Industry News: Anhui Province issued a plan to support mergers and acquisitions in key industries, promote energy - saving and carbon - reduction, and guide key industries to carry out low - carbon transformation [15][17] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for industrial silicon and polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [17]