集运指数（欧线）：震荡偏弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the container shipping index (European routes) is "Oscillating weakly" [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European routes) is expected to show an oscillating and weak trend. The freight rates are under downward pressure, and the supply - side capacity has certain fluctuations. Different contracts have different price trends and outlooks [1][11][13] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market Conditions - Contract Prices and Changes: EC2510 closed at 1,315.3 with a 0.54% increase, EC2512 at 1,715.6 with a 2.33% increase, and EC2602 at 1,542.0 with a 1.78% increase. The spread between EC2510 - EC2512 is - 400.3, and between EC2512 - EC2604 is 455.8 [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: For EC2510, the trading volume is 23,721, open interest is 48,765 with a decrease of 1,198; for EC2512, the trading volume is 9,362, open interest is 16,225 with a decrease of 222; for EC2602, the trading volume is 1,401, open interest is 5,640 with a decrease of 13 [1] 2. Freight Rate Index - SCFIS Index: The European route of SCFIS is at 1,773.60 points, with a weekly decline of 10.9%; the US - West route is at 1,013.90 points, with a weekly decline of 2.6% [1] - SCFI Index: The European route of SCFI is at $1,315/TEU, with a bi - weekly decline of 11.2%; the US - West route is at $2,189/FEU, with a bi - weekly increase of 13.8% [1] 3. Spot Freight Rates - Expected Freight Rate Trend: It is expected that the freight rate center in late September will drop to the same level as that in mid - early May. In week 38, it may be around $1,850/FEU, and in week 39, it may be in the range of $1,700 - $1,750/FEU. There is still pressure on freight rates from week 42 - 43 after the National Day holiday [11] - Freight Rates of Different Alliances: Gemini Alliance's FAK center in the third week of September is around $1,800/FEU; OA Alliance's is around $1,900/FEU; PA Alliance's is around $1,780/FEU; MSC's is $2,040/FEU from September 6th and will drop to $1,840/FEU in the second half of September [11] 4. Supply - Side Capacity - September Capacity: There are 6 blank sailings in September, with no pending voyages. The average weekly capacity reaches 296,000 TEU/week. The decline in September capacity compared to August is about 6%, significantly lower than the 14% decline in the same period in 2024 [12] - October Capacity: There are 2 pending voyages, 12 blank sailings, and 1 additional sailing. Excluding pending voyages, the average weekly capacity is currently 277,000 TEU/week, a 6.3% decline month - on - month and a 5% increase year - on - year [12] - November Capacity: There are 6 pending voyages, 2 blank sailings, and 1 additional sailing. Excluding pending voyages, the average weekly capacity is currently 296,000 TEU/week, a 7.4% increase month - on - month and a 5.1% increase year - on - year [12] 5. Contract Outlook - 2510 Contract: The overall cabin - reduction efforts of shipping companies in September are small, leading to great pressure on freight rate decline. The neutral - level suspension of sailings in October helps slow down the decline but is not enough to reverse the trend. The expected freight rate center at the end of September corresponds to the SCFIS index of 1,150 - 1,200 points, and there may be a decline of 50 - 150 points in October. Considering the impact of voyage delays, the delivery settlement price of the 2510 contract is more likely to be in the range of 1,150 - 1,200 points [13] - 2512 Contract: Due to factors such as the late Spring Festival in 2026 and increasing over - capacity pressure, the contract should not be over - estimated. It is expected to fluctuate widely between 1,550 - 1,800 points [13] - 2602 Contract: In years when the Spring Festival is late, the 12 - contract of the previous year still has a certain premium over the 10 - contract, but the 02 - contract may not be at a discount to the 12 - contract [13] 6. Investment Strategy - Short - term Strategy: In the short - term (this week), consider shorting the 2510 contract with a light position, with a resistance level of 1,350 - 1,400 points [14] - Medium - to - Long - term Strategy: Consider entering into positive spreads for 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 in the medium - to - long - term [15]