品种观点参考-20250908

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The domestic soybean meal market is in a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Short - term soybean meal futures prices face pressure in rebound and will run with a weak and volatile trend. The trading logic will return to the weak reality of the industrial chain [6]. - The market expects that the increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory this week may be limited due to lower production and strong exports. Short - term palm oil futures prices will fluctuate around energy attributes and industrial changes, mainly with wide - range oscillations [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - Viewpoints: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [6]. - Core Logic: The domestic market is in the game between weak reality and strong expectations. Changes in Sino - US relations affect the procurement rhythm of imported soybeans and the South American soybean premium, which are continuously transmitted to the soybean meal market [6]. Palm Oil (P) - Viewpoints: Intraday view is weakly volatile, medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is weakly volatile [8]. - Core Logic: The market expects that the increase in Malaysia's palm oil inventory this week may be limited due to lower production and strong exports. The spill - over effect of recent international oil price fluctuations on the oil market continues to be reflected, and palm oil is still highly sensitive to crude oil futures price fluctuations [8]. Other Related Futures Contracts - Soybean Meal 2601: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil mill operation rhythm, and stocking demand [7]. - Soybean Oil 2601: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory [7]. - Palm 2601: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all weakly volatile. Influencing factors include biodiesel attributes, Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, main - producing countries' tariff policies, domestic arrivals, inventory, and substitution demand [7].