Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The report suggests a strategy of buying on pullbacks for glass futures. In the traditional peak season, the sales in Hubei have continued to improve, and the downstream processing plants in North China have resumed work, so the regional production and sales are expected to pick up. The overall fundamentals have improved compared to July and August. Technically, the bullish force is stable and the bearish force is weakening, with the market returning to the 1150 - 1200 range. Although there are uncertainties about the anti - involution news and the market is expected to pull back, the fundamentals and macro factors are still favorable. It is recommended to partially take profits on the previous 01 long positions and focus on the support range of 1130 - 1140 for buying on pullbacks [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Investment Strategy - Main Logic: Last week, glass futures first declined and then rose. The supply side saw a slight increase in daily melting volume due to the ignition and复产 of a production line. The national inventory remained stable, with significant inventory increases in North China and inventory decreases in Hubei. The downstream mid - and long - term replenishment led to improved market trading sentiment. The supply and inventory pressure of soda ash is still high, and attention should be paid to the arbitrage opportunity of the soda - glass price difference. In the future, the fundamentals are expected to improve, but the market may pull back [2]. - Operation Strategy: Buy on pullbacks [2][3] 2. Market Review - Futures Price - Spot Price: As of September 5, the market price of 5mm float glass was 1,140 yuan/ton in North China (unchanged), 1,090 yuan/ton in Central China (unchanged), and 1,200 yuan/ton in East China (unchanged). - Futures Price: Last Friday, the glass 01 contract closed at 1,189 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan from the previous week [9][10] 3. Market Review - Basis - Soda - Glass Price Difference: As of September 5, the soda futures price was 1,302 yuan/ton, and the glass futures price was 1,189 yuan/ton, with a price difference of 113 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan). - Basis: Last Friday, the basis of the glass 01 contract was - 149 yuan/ton (down 7 yuan). - Contract Price Difference: Last Friday, the 01 - 05 price difference was - 198 yuan/ton (down 12 yuan) [16] 4. Profit - The cost and gross profit of glass production using different processes changed little. The natural gas - based process had a cost of 1,579 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and a gross profit of - 379 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan); the coal - gas - based process had a cost of 1,154 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan) and a gross profit of - 14 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan); the petroleum - coke - based process had a cost of 1,093 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and a gross profit of - 3 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan) [19] 5. Supply - Last Friday, the daily melting volume of glass was 159,455 tons/day (up 600 tons). Currently, there are 225 production lines in operation. A production line in Hunan Zhuzhou Qibin resumed production last week [21] 6. Inventory - As of September 5, the inventory of 80 glass sample manufacturers nationwide was 63.05 million weight boxes (up 484,000 weight boxes). The inventory in North China increased significantly, while that in Hubei decreased [25] 7. Deep - processing - Production and Sales Rate: On September 4, the comprehensive production and sales rate of float glass was 88% (down 8%). - LOW - E Glass: On September 5, the operating rate of LOW - E glass was 48.1% (unchanged). - Order Availability Days: At the beginning of September, the order days of glass deep - processing were 10.4 days (up 0.75 days) [31] 8. Demand - Automobile - In July, China's automobile production was 2.591 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 203,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 305,000 vehicles; sales were 2.593 million vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of 311,000 vehicles and a year - on - year increase of 331,000 vehicles. - In July, the retail volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in China was 987,000 vehicles, with a penetration rate of 54% [40] 9. Demand - Real Estate - In July, China's real estate completion area was 24.6739 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 29%; new construction area was 48.4168 million square meters (down 15%); construction area was 54.0957 million square meters (down 16%); and commercial housing sales area was 57.0945 million square meters (down 8%). - From August 25 to August 31, the total transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 2.07 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 26% and a year - on - year increase of 6%. - In July, real estate development investment was 692.24 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17% [47] 10. Cost - Soda - Spot Price - As of last weekend, the mainstream market price of heavy soda in North China was 1,325 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan); in East China was 1,250 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan); in Central China was 1,300 yuan/ton (unchanged); and in South China was 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged). - Last Friday, the soda 2601 contract closed at 1,302 yuan/ton (up 6 yuan), and the basis of the soda Central China 09 contract was - 2 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan) [50][54] 11. Cost - Soda - Profit - As of last Friday, the profit of soda enterprises using the ammonia - alkali method was - 37 yuan/ton (down 37 yuan), and the profit using the co - production method was - 48 yuan/ton (down 28 yuan) [57][59] 12. Cost - Soda - Production - Last week, the domestic soda production was 751,700 tons (a week - on - week increase of 32,600 tons), including 411,200 tons of heavy soda (a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons) and 340,500 tons of light soda (a week - on - week decrease of 4,600 tons). The loss was 120,300 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons). - At the end of last week, the exchange soda warehouse receipts were 18,484 (a week - on - week increase of 2,487). As of September 5, the national in - factory inventory of soda was 1.8221 million tons (a week - on - week decrease of 45,400 tons) [64][65] 13. Cost - Soda - Apparent Consumption - Last week, the apparent consumption of heavy soda was 461,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 62,800 tons; the apparent consumption of light soda was 335,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28,100 tons. - Last week, the production and sales rate of soda was 106.04%, a week - on - week increase of 0.02%. In July, the soda inventory days of sample float glass factories were 25.8 days [70][75]
玻璃：宏观叠加旺季尝试回调做多
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-08 02:37