Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - International aspects: Optimistic expectations for China-US trade negotiations have cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the export demand for US soybeans is under pressure. The August USDA report is bullish, with the planting area of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season reduced by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres, the yield per acre estimated at 53.6 bushels, and the ending inventory dropping to 290 million bushels. Recent low precipitation in the production areas has led to a significant decline in the good and excellent rate. Attention should be paid to the yield adjustment in the September report. The Ministry of Commerce has issued an anti-dumping investigation ruling on imported Canadian rapeseed, with a deposit ratio of 75.8% and an extended investigation period, strengthening the expectation of tightened rapeseed imports. The meteorological organization has reported that the La Nina phenomenon may return in September, and the soybean sowing work in South America is about to begin. Track the changes in weather [3][71]. - Domestic aspects: In terms of the ship - booking progress, the booking progress for November is 14%, 1.5% for December, and sporadic for January. The overall progress is slow. Market rumors suggest that 3 - 6 million tons of imported reserve soybeans will be released in November to ease the tight supply situation. The purchase of Argentine soybean meal is limited and there are quality problems. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The arrival of soybeans from August to September is sufficient, the crushing operation rate is high, and the supply of soybean meal is still available. Feed enterprises purchase on a spot - as - needed basis, and the purchase of basis positions has increased under the expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The提货 demand is good, and there is support on the demand side [3][71]. - Recently, the dry conditions in the production areas have led to a significant decline in the good and excellent rate of US soybeans, and there is a large variable in the final yield. Last year, due to continuous low precipitation in the production areas from August to September, the yield continued to decline. The sowing season in South America has begun, and attention should be paid to the impact of the return of La Nina. The Brazilian premium is running strongly, providing support for import costs. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the fourth quarter. The short - term arrival of Brazilian soybeans is still dragging down the upward rhythm. It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will mainly fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise [3][72]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Review of the Soybean Meal Market - Since August, soybean meal has first risen and then fallen, showing a range - bound operation. At the end of August, the 01 contract of soybean meal rose 19 to close at 3055 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%. The spot price of soybean meal in South China rose 70 to close at 2940 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.44%. The main contract of CBOT US soybeans rose 62.75 to close at 1053 cents/bushel, an increase of 6.34%. In early August, the price steadily increased, mainly supported by the extension of the China - US tariff agreement as scheduled and the strengthening of the expectation of tight supply in the distant future. In the middle of August, it rose sharply and then fluctuated, mainly driven by the unexpectedly bullish USDA report. In late August, the price of soybean meal continued to decline and adjust, mainly due to the news of the release of imported reserve soybeans in November and the expectation of a positive outcome in the China - US trade negotiation [9]. 2. International Aspects 2.1 Global Soybean Supply and Demand - According to the August USDA report, the global soybean production in the 2025/2026 season is 426.39 million tons, a decrease of 1.29 million tons from the previous month's estimate. The global crushing demand is 367.7 million tons, basically unchanged from the previous month's estimate. The ending inventory in the 2025/2026 season is 124.9 million tons, a decrease of 1.17 million tons from the previous month's estimate, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 29.38% [12]. 2.2 US Soybean Supply and Demand - The August USDA report is bullish. In the 2024/2025 season, the export demand for US soybeans increased by 10 million bushels to 1.875 billion bushels, and the crushing demand increased by 10 million bushels to 2.43 billion bushels. In the 2025/2026 season, the planting area of US soybeans decreased by 2.5 million acres, mainly due to the increase in the behavior of US farmers switching to corn planting under the influence of China - US tariff frictions. The yield per acre increased from 52.5 bushels/acre to 53.6 bushels/acre, but the overall production estimate decreased to 4.292 billion bushels. As of now, due to the high tariffs on US soybean imports, China has not made any purchases, and the export demand for US soybeans has decreased by 40 million bushels to 1.705 billion bushels. The ending inventory has dropped to 290 million bushels, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 6.66%, indicating an expectation of tightening supply [15]. 2.3 US Soybean Production Area Weather - As of the week of August 24, 2025, the good and excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, higher than the market expectation of 67%. As of the week of August 26, about 11% of the US soybean planting area was affected by drought. The weather forecast shows that the cumulative precipitation in the US soybean production areas in the next 15 days will be 30 - 35mm, lower than the average level. The eastern production areas are relatively dry. The 2025 Pro Farmer inspection report shows that the development of this year's soybean crops is better than that of the same period last year. The final yield is estimated to be 53 bushels/acre, and considering the dry weather in August, the estimated yield may be slightly adjusted downward [21][22]. 2.4 US Soybean Crushing Demand - The data released by the National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) shows that the US soybean crushing volume in July was 195.699 million bushels, higher than the market average expectation of 191.59 million bushels. The cumulative crushing volume from September 2024 to July 2025 was 2.114335 billion bushels, a year - on - year increase of 4.70%. As of the week of August 22, 2025, the US soybean crushing gross profit was 2.99 dollars/bushel [24]. 2.5 US Soybean Export Demand - As of the week of August 21, 2025, the net export sales of US soybeans in the current market season were - 189,000 tons. The cumulative export sales volume of US soybeans in the 2024/2025 season was 50.87 million tons. The net export sales of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season in the current week were 1.373 million tons, and the cumulative sales volume was 7.23 million tons. China has not purchased new - season US soybeans [27]. 2.6 Brazilian Soybean Balance Sheet and Exports - According to the USDA report, the Brazilian soybean balance sheet has basically not been adjusted. In the 2025/2026 season, the Brazilian soybean production remains at 175 million tons, the export demand is 112 million tons, the crushing demand is 58 million tons, the ending inventory is 36.96 million tons, and the stock - to - consumption ratio is 21.21%. In July 2025, the Brazilian soybean export volume was 12.26 million tons. The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) data shows that the estimated export volume of Brazilian soybeans in August is 8.94 million tons [31][39]. 2.7 Argentine Soybean Situation - The August USDA report shows that in the 2024/2025 season, the Argentine soybean production increased by 1 million tons to 50.9 million tons, the import volume increased by 300,000 tons to 6.8 million tons, the crushing demand increased by 500,000 tons to 42.6 million tons, and the ending inventory was 24.95 million tons. In the 2025/2026 season, the Argentine soybean production is expected to be 48.5 million tons, the export demand increased by 800,000 tons to 5.8 million tons, the crushing demand remains at 43 million tons, and the ending inventory is 24.65 million tons [41]. 3. Domestic Situation 3.1 Import of Soybeans and Other Situations - According to customs data, in July 2025, China's soybean import volume was 11.67 million tons. In terms of the ship - booking rhythm, as of August 19, the purchase progress for November - January is relatively slow. The estimated arrival volume of soybeans in August - September is about 10 million tons each month [47]. 3.2 Domestic Oil Mill Inventory - As of the week of August 22, 2025, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 6.8253 million tons, the soybean meal inventory was 1.0533 million tons, and the unexecuted contract was 4.9174 million tons. The national port soybean inventory was 8.898 million tons. As of the week of August 29, 2025, the daily average trading volume of soybean meal in the week was 149,540 tons, the daily average 提货 volume was 193,580 tons, the crushing volume of major oil mills was 2.4254 million tons, and the feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days were 8.87 days [51]. 3.3 Feed and Breeding Situation - In July 2025, the national industrial feed production was 28.31 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.3% and a year - on - year increase of 5.5%. The proportion of corn in the compound feed produced by feed enterprises is 33.1%, and the proportion of soybean meal in the compound feed and concentrated feed is 14.1% [63]. 4. Summary and Outlook for the Future - International aspects: Optimistic expectations for China - US trade negotiations have cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the export demand for US soybeans is under pressure. Pay attention to the yield adjustment in the September USDA report, the tightening of rapeseed imports, and the impact of the possible return of La Nina [71]. - Domestic aspects: The ship - booking progress is slow, and the release of imported reserve soybeans in November may ease the tight supply situation. Without purchasing US soybeans, there is still an expectation of tightening supply in the distant future. The current supply of soybean meal is sufficient, and the demand side has support [71]. - It is expected that the short - term Dalian soybean meal will mainly fluctuate, and the medium - to - long - term price center will rise [72].
近端供应在四季度仍存缺口
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-08 02:37