镍：窄幅震荡运行

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Nickel is expected to operate in a narrow - range fluctuation [1]. - Stainless steel prices may fluctuate as there is a game between reality and expectations [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Data Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 121,310, down 460 from T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel main contract is 12,850, down 5 from T - 1. The trading volume of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 84,018, a decrease of 20,580 from T - 1; the trading volume of stainless steel main contract is 153,413, an increase of 54,404 from T - 1 [2]. - Industrial Chain Data: The price of 1 imported nickel is 121,050, down 350 from T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 946, up 1 from T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 13,150, down 50 from T - 1; the price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,870, unchanged from T - 1 [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Trade Tension: On March 3, Ontario Premier Ford proposed that Ontario's minerals are crucial in the tariff struggle and may stop exporting nickel to the US [2]. - Project Progress: On April 27, the first - phase project of Indonesia's CNI nickel - iron RKEF, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron, entering the trial - production stage. The project is located in Southeast Sulawesi, Indonesia, producing 22% nickel - iron with an annual metal nickel output of about 12,500 tons per single line [3]. - Environmental Regulation: Environmental violations were found in the Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park (IMIP), and the responsible deputy minister said fines may be imposed on verified illegal companies and an audit of the entire park will be carried out [3]. - Policy Change: Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supply. The Indonesian government requires mining and coal companies to resubmit the 2026 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) starting from October 2025 [4][5]. - Production Output: The approved 2025 Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) production of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [4]. - Production Suspension: Due to long - term production losses, all EF production lines of an Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial park have been suspended recently, which is expected to affect the nickel - iron output by about 1,900 metal tons per month [4][5]. - Domestic Steel Mill: A Shandong steel mill started maintenance due to the provincial steel mill's production capacity limit and a 5% annual production reduction target, suspending the delivery obligations under long - term supply agreements signed in August [5]. - Illegal Mining Crackdown: The Indonesian President stated that illegal mining will be severely punished, and reports of 1,063 illegal mines have been received [6]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is also 0, indicating a neutral view [7].