非农数据惨淡，铜价高位震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated at a high level. The dismal US non - farm payroll data in August and the rising unemployment rate boosted the expectation of an interest rate cut this month, but the market has already fully priced in the rate cut in September. Some hawkish officials maintain a cautious stance, believing that if the Fed's independence is threatened, the low - inflation environment in the US will be severely damaged, and the Fed may not conduct an unexpected rate cut this month. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas mining resources persists. Due to the new tax policy, the smelting profit of scrap copper may be limited, and the refined copper production in China will decline to some extent in September. With the arrival of the peak consumption season in September and October, social inventory may fall, and the B - structure of the near - month contract has widened [2][7]. - Overall, the weak US non - farm payroll data boosts the interest rate cut expectation, but the market has already priced it in. Hawkish officials warn that if Trump overly interferes with the Fed's independence, the low - inflation environment in the US will be damaged. The market will remain relatively cautious before the Fed makes a decision. In addition, China's manufacturing sentiment has recovered, industrial output has resumed growth, the contraction of new export business has slowed down, and the anti - involution sentiment is still fermenting. The emerging industry sectors in the A - share market continue to rise. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas mining resources remains. Due to the new tax policy, the refined copper production in China will decline in September. With the arrival of the peak consumption season, refined copper will return to a tight - balance structure. It is expected that copper prices will continue to rise after the short - term fluctuation [2][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Data - LME copper price on September 5 was $9865.00/ton, down $41.00 (- 0.41%) from August 29; COMEX copper price was 454.35 cents/pound, down 4.15 cents (- 0.91%); SHFE copper price was 80140.00 yuan/ton, up 730.00 yuan (0.92%); international copper price was 70470.00 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan (- 0.03%). The Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.12, the LME spot premium/discount was - $68.04/ton, up $12.22 (- 15.23%), and the Shanghai spot premium/discount was 165 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan [3]. - As of September 5, LME copper inventory was 157,950 tons, down 950 tons (- 0.60%); COMEX inventory was 305,345 short tons, up 27,502 short tons (9.90%); SHFE inventory was 81,833 tons, up 2,103 tons (2.64%); Shanghai bonded - area inventory was 80,200 tons, down 3,300 tons (- 3.95%). The total inventory was 625,328 tons, up 25,355 tons (4.23%) [6]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Price Fluctuation Reasons: The dismal US non - farm payroll data in August and the rising unemployment rate boosted the expectation of an interest rate cut this month, but the market has already fully priced it in. Some hawkish officials maintain a cautious stance. Fundamentally, the shortage of overseas mining resources persists. The new tax policy may limit scrap - copper smelting profits, leading to a decline in domestic refined copper production in September. With the arrival of the peak consumption season, social inventory may fall, and the B - structure of the near - month contract has widened [7]. - Inventory Situation: As of September 5, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded - area rose to 625,000 tons. LME copper inventory was basically flat, the proportion of cancelled warrants remained at 10%; SHFE inventory increased slightly by 0.2 million tons; Shanghai bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.33 million tons. The LME inventory rebound trend has basically ended, the US copper inventory continued to rise, and the Shanghai - London ratio rose to 8.12 due to the weak US dollar index last week [7]. - Macro - situation: In the US, the non - farm payrolls in August increased by only 22,000, far lower than expected, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of full - time jobs decreased by 357,000, which is the second consecutive month of significant decline. The ADP employment in August increased by only 54,000, far lower than expected. The Fed's Beige Book shows that consumer spending has flattened or declined, and business investment willingness has decreased. Some Fed officials advocate interest rate cuts. In China, the S&P manufacturing PMI rose to 50.5, higher than the previous value of 49.5, and the new order index reached the highest since March. New export orders slightly decreased [8]. - Supply - demand Situation: Globally, the supply of mining resources remains tight, and the domestic weekly spot TC remains at a relatively low level of - $40.8/ton. Some mines have production problems. In China, refined copper production in September may decline significantly due to the new scrap - copper tax policy. In terms of demand, power grid investment projects will accelerate, the operating rate of refined - copper rod enterprises has rebounded, the new - energy vehicle market will enter the peak consumption season, and the domestic refined - copper market may face a tight - balance situation [9]. 3.3 Industry News - Canada's Teck Resources has suspended some major expansion projects and is working on solving the production problems of its flagship QuebradaBlanca (QB) copper mine in Chile. The review will end in October, and most of the subsequent work will focus on tailings facilities. Some approved projects will continue [12]. - SolGold has moved its tax registration to Switzerland and is promoting its flagship Cascabel copper - gold project into the development stage. It is considering adding a new listing location. The company aims to improve financial performance, increase shareholder value through tax optimization, and enhance investor appeal [13]. - Capstone Copper's Mantoverde mine in Chile will face a temporary production decline due to the failure of two ball - mill drive motors. The company will operate at half - capacity by bypassing the mill and may advance the maintenance work. It is estimated that copper - concentrate production will decrease by 3000 - 4000 tons during the four - week repair period, and an investigation into the root cause of the failure has been launched [14]. 3.4 Related Charts - The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, LME copper inventory, global visible inventory, SHFE and bonded - area inventory, LME inventory and cancelled warrants, COMEX inventory and cancelled warrants, SHFE copper basis, refined - scrap copper price difference, copper spot premium/discount, SHFE copper inter - month spread, spot premium/discount and Yangshan copper premium, copper internal - external price ratio, copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate spot TC, SHFE - LME ratio excluding exchange rate, COMEX copper non - commercial net long position ratio, and LME copper investment fund net position change [16][21][25][31][37][41].