关注USDA报告发布连粕延续震荡

Report Title - Title: "豆粕周报" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 26.25 to close at 1026.75 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.49%; the soybean meal 01 contract rose 12 to close at 3067 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.39%; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2960 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.68%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 37 to close at 2550 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.47%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 30 to close at 2590 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.17% [4][8] - The decline in US soybeans was mainly due to the cooling of optimistic sentiment in China - US trade negotiations, the failure to reach a soybean purchase agreement, and concerns about export demand. The domestic near - term supply was relatively sufficient, while the purchase of US soybeans in the long - term had not started, leading to supply uncertainties. The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation period for Canadian rapeseed, and soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly higher during the week [5][8] - Recently, there was less precipitation in the US soybean producing areas, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans was significantly lowered. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the September USDA report. The La Nina phenomenon may return in September, and the South American sowing season is about to begin. Track the changes in the weather in the producing areas. The optimistic sentiment in China - US trade negotiations has cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the long - term supply remains uncertain, but the near - term supply is still available, slowing down the upward pace. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term [5][12] Summary by Directory Market Data - Futures and Spot Prices: The CBOT November soybean contract was at 1026.75 cents per bushel on September 5, down 26.25 from August 29, a decline of 2.49%. The DCE soybean meal contract was at 3067 yuan per ton, up 12 from August 29, an increase of 0.39%. The CZCE rapeseed meal contract was at 2550 yuan per ton, up 37 from August 29, an increase of 1.47%. The South China soybean meal spot price was 2960 yuan per ton, up 20 from August 29, an increase of 0.68% [4][6][8] - Import Prices: The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 489.00 dollars per ton on September 5, up 5.00 from August 29, an increase of 1.03%. The CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans was 467.00 dollars per ton, down 6.00 from August 29, a decline of - 1.27% [6] - Soybean Processing Margins: The Brazilian soybean processing margin was - 50.23 yuan per ton on September 5, down 27.40 from August 29. The US soybean processing margin (gross profit) was 2.71 dollars per bushel as of August 29, down from 2.99 dollars per bushel the previous week [6][10] - Inventory and Sales Data: As of August 29, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 696.85 million tons, an increase of 14.32 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 11.6 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 107.88 million tons, an increase of 2.55 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 30.7 million tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 440.82 million tons, a decrease of 50.92 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 115.78 million tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 905.6 million tons, an increase of 15.8 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 25.75 million tons from the same period last year [11] - Trading Volume and Delivery Data: As of September 5, the weekly average daily trading volume of national soybean meal was 10.19 million tons, including 7.02 million tons of spot trading and 3.17 million tons of forward trading, compared with 14.954 million tons the previous week; the weekly average daily delivery volume of soybean meal was 19.154 million tons, compared with 19.358 million tons the previous week; the main oil mills' processing volume was 230.39 million tons, compared with 242.54 million tons the previous week; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.8 days, compared with 8.87 days the previous week [12] Market Analysis and Outlook - US Soybean Market: The decline in US soybeans was due to the cooling of optimistic sentiment in China - US trade negotiations, the failure to reach a soybean purchase agreement, and concerns about export demand. The US soybean good - quality rate was significantly lowered due to less precipitation in the producing areas, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the September USDA report [5][8][12] - Domestic Market: The domestic near - term supply was relatively sufficient, while the long - term supply was uncertain as the purchase of US soybeans had not started. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation period for Canadian rapeseed also affected the market. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term [5][8][12] Industry News - Production Forecasts: StoneX estimates that the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean production will be a record 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous year. UkrAgro Consult estimates that the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean production will increase to 176.5 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year. StoneX has lowered its forecast for the US 2025 soybean yield per acre from 53.6 bushels to 53.2 bushels, and estimates the US soybean production to be 4.257 billion bushels, lower than the previous 4.425 billion bushels [13][14][16] - Sowing and Sales Data: Ukrainian farmers have started large - scale winter sowing, with 377,100 hectares of winter rapeseed sown as of September 1, accounting for 33.8% of the estimated planting area. As of August 27, Argentine farmers sold 656,300 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 116,200 tons of 2025/26 soybeans. Brazil exported 9,338,292.80 tons of soybeans in August, a 16% increase year - on - year [13][15] - Policy News: The Ukrainian president has signed a bill to impose a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed, which will last until January 1, 2030, and then decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5% [14] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, freight rates, RMB exchange rates, regional processing margins, and various inventory, sales, and price data charts to visually present the market situation [17][18][19]