棕榈油周报：等待MPOB报告发布，棕榈油震荡调整-20250908

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 72 to close at 4,449 ringgit/ton, a 1.64% increase; the palm oil 01 contract rose 210 to close at 9,526 yuan/ton, a 2.25% increase; the soybean oil 01 contract rose 92 to close at 8,450 yuan/ton, a 1.1% increase; the rapeseed oil 01 contract rose 29 to close at 9,818 yuan/ton, a 0.3% increase; the CBOT US soybean oil main contract fell 0.9 to close at 51.2 cents/pound, a 1.73% decrease; the ICE canola active contract fell 10 to close at 617.5 Canadian dollars/ton, a 1.59% decrease [4]. - The slight weekly gain in palm oil was mainly due to strong export demand for Malaysian palm oil in August. Due to the Indian Diwali festival and its cost - effectiveness, the import demand from India increased significantly, providing price support. Market institutions expect the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August to continue to increase to 2.2 million tons, and with limited market driving force, the market showed an overall oscillatory trend. There was limited news on the US soybean oil - related biodiesel policy. The weakening of US soybeans due to concerns about export demand dragged down US soybean oil, which closed down in an oscillatory manner [4][6]. - Macroeconomically, the US non - farm payrolls data in August were far below expectations, leading to an increase in market expectations of interest rate cuts. US Treasury bond prices rose significantly, and the US dollar index oscillated at a low level. Due to the weak US employment data and OPEC+ in principle agreeing to increase production again in October, oil prices trended weakly in an oscillatory manner. Fundamentally, the production of Malaysian palm oil in August is expected to increase slightly. Strong export demand provides price support, while the ending inventory is expected to increase to 2.2 million tons, limiting the upward momentum of prices. In the short term, the market driving force is limited. Subsequently, the Diwali festival stocking demand in India will continue. Attention should be paid to the upcoming MPOB report, and palm oil is expected to oscillate in the short term [4][6][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data | Contract | Closing Price on Sep 5 | Closing Price on Aug 29 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean Oil Main Contract | 51.2 | 52.1 | - 0.9 | - 1.73% | Cents/pound | | BMD Malaysian Palm Oil Main Contract | 4449 | 4377 | 72 | 1.64% | Ringgit/ton | | DCE Palm Oil | 9526 | 9316 | 210 | 2.25% | Yuan/ton | | DCE Soybean Oil | 8450 | 8358 | 92 | 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Oil | 9818 | 9789 | 29 | 0.30% | Yuan/ton | | Futures Spread between Soybean Oil and Palm Oil | - 1076 | - 958 | - 118 | - | Yuan/ton | | Futures Spread between Rapeseed Oil and Palm Oil | 292 | 473 | - 181 | - | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price of 24 - degree Palm Oil in Guangzhou, Guangdong | 9380 | 9320 | 60 | 0.64% | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price of Grade - 1 Soybean Oil in Rizhao | 8510 | 8470 | 40 | 0.47% | Yuan/ton | | Spot Price of Imported Grade - 3 Rapeseed Oil in Zhangjiagang, Jiangsu | 9860 | 9900 | - 40 | - 0.40% | Yuan/ton | [5] 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - Palm oil closed slightly higher last week. The strong export demand for Malaysian palm oil in August, driven by the Indian Diwali festival and cost - effectiveness, provided price support. Market institutions expect the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in August to reach 2.2 million tons, and with limited market driving force, it oscillated overall. US soybean oil closed down due to limited biodiesel policy news and the weakening of US soybeans. Canola continued its weekly decline as the Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation on imported canola from Canada until March 9, 2026, keeping demand under pressure [6]. - The MPOB monthly report preview shows that Reuters survey predicts that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in August 2025 will be 2.2 million tons, a 4.06% increase from July, reaching the highest level since December 2023; production is expected to be 1.86 million tons, a 2.5% increase from July, increasing for the second consecutive month to the highest level since August last year; export volume is expected to be 1.45 million tons, a 10.7% increase from July, increasing for the second consecutive month to a nine - month high [7]. - According to SPPOMA data, from August 1 - 31, 2025, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 4.18% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.29% month - on - month, and production decreased by 2.65% month - on - month. According to MPOA data, the estimated production of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 31 increased by 2.07%, with a 1.26% decrease in the Malay Peninsula, a 7.36% increase in Sabah, an 8.14% increase in Sarawak, and a 7.56% increase in East Malaysia. The estimated total production in August was 1.85 million tons [7][8]. - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil export volume from August 1 - 31 was 1,421,486 tons, a 10.2% increase from the same period last month. According to AmSpec data, the export volume was 1,341,990 tons, a 15.37% increase. According to SGS data, the expected export volume was 1,170,043 tons, a 30.53% increase. Indonesia's Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January - July 2025, the export volume of Indonesian crude palm oil and refined palm oil was 13.64 million tons, a 10.95% year - on - year increase [8]. - According to foreign media reports, Indian palm oil imports in August increased by 16% month - on - month to 993,000 tons, reaching the highest level in 13 months; soybean oil imports decreased by 28% month - on - month to 355,000 tons, the lowest level in six months; sunflower oil imports increased by 27% month - on - month to 255,000 tons, the highest level in seven months; total edible oil imports increased by 3.6% month - on - month to 1.6 million tons, the highest level in 13 months [9]. - As of the week ending August 29, 2025, the inventory of the three major oils in key national regions was 2.5069 million tons, an increase of 97,800 tons from the previous week and 397,800 tons from the same period last year. Among them, soybean oil inventory was 1.2388 million tons, an increase of 52,800 tons from the previous week and 144,800 tons from the same period last year; palm oil inventory was 610,100 tons, an increase of 28,000 tons from the previous week and 16,500 tons from the same period last year; rapeseed oil inventory was 658,000 tons, an increase of 17,000 tons from the previous week and 236,600 tons from the same period last year [9]. - As of the week ending September 5, 2025, the average daily trading volume of soybean oil in key national regions was 25,540 tons, compared with 33,760 tons in the previous week; the average daily trading volume of palm oil was 1,756 tons, compared with 1,573 tons in the previous week [9]. 3.3 Industry News - The Planters' Association of Ceylon reiterated its call to lift the palm oil planting ban. The association's chairman said they had submitted a proposal, and the current government had shown a positive attitude, believing that the latest committee appointment would approve the lifting of the ban [11]. - A research institution's commodity research report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be revised up to 19.3 million tons, an increase of less than 1% from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 18.8 - 19.8 million tons, reflecting strong production and good harvesting conditions. The preliminary estimate for Malaysia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season (October - September next year) is 19.2 million tons [12]. - A research institution's commodity research report shows that Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2024/25 season is expected to be 49.5 million tons, a 1.4% increase from the previous estimate, with an estimated range of 44.5 - 54.5 million tons, due to strong output in the first half of the year. The preliminary estimate for Indonesia's palm oil production in the 2025/26 season (October - September next year) is 49 million tons [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts - The report provides 22 charts, including the price trends of Malaysian palm oil, US soybean oil, and the three major oils' futures and spot prices, as well as the production, inventory, and export volume trends of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory trends of domestic three major oils [14][15][16]