长江期货尿素周报：供求宽松，关注边际改善-20250908

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Yangtze River Futures Urea Weekly Report: Supply and Demand Loose, Pay Attention to Marginal Improvement [1] - Report date: September 8, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Zhang Ying, Practice No.: F03105021, Investment Consultation No.: Z0021335 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core View - Recently, the urea operating rate has decreased, and the daily output has dropped to 18 - 190,000 tons. Agricultural fertilizer demand is scattered, compound fertilizer finished product pick - up is poor, and the slow fertilizer preparation progress restrains the start - up. The continuous accumulation of urea enterprise inventory, the high port inventory, and the increase in the number of warehouse receipts reflect that the urea spot market has a loose supply - demand relationship. It is expected that the compound fertilizer demand will be postponed, waiting for the marginal improvement of supply and demand. Pay attention to the support at the phased price bottom, and focus on the support of 1650 - 1700 for the 01 contract [4] Group 4: Market Changes - Price: Affected by the downward adjustment of the urea spot quotation and poor sales, the support for the market expectation on the futures market weakened, and the urea price was strong first and then weak. On September 5, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1,713 yuan/ton, a decrease of 33 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.89%, and the lowest during the period was 1,706 yuan/ton. The daily average price of the urea spot in the Henan market was 1,699 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28 yuan/ton from the previous week, a decline of 1.62% [4][7] - Basis: On September 5, the main basis in the Henan market was - 14 yuan/ton, and the weekly basis operating range was (- 35) - (- 3) yuan/ton [4][10] - Spread: On September 5, the 9 - 1 spread was - 51 yuan/ton, and the weekly operating range was (- 73) - (- 50) yuan/ton [4][10] Group 5: Fundamental Changes Supply - China's urea operating load rate was 79.13%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points from the previous week, among which the operating load rate of gas - head enterprises was 71.15%, a decrease of 0.65 percentage points from the previous week, and the daily average urea output was 182,700 tons. After the reduction or short - stop of some devices in Henan, Hebei and other places and then resumed production, and the smooth production after the commissioning of some devices in Shandong, Anhui, Xinjiang and other places, the overall operating rate decreased, and the urea supply decreased month - on - month [4][12] Cost - The trading in the anthracite market cooled down, and the price was mainly stable. As of September 4, the tax - included price of anthracite washed small lumps with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, and the tax - included price of anthracite washed lumps with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi was 760 - 800 yuan/ton, both of which were flat compared with the closing price of the previous week [4][16] Demand - Agricultural demand: National agricultural demand was scattered at this stage. The average advance receipt of major urea production enterprises was 3.4 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises was 94.8%. Agricultural demand moderately followed up, the compound fertilizer operation was stable, and there was a bargain - hunting purchase of urea. The downstream operation of melamine and other products was generally stable, and the production and sales were stable [4][20] - Industrial demand: The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 33.08%, a decrease of 6.14 percentage points from the previous week. The compound fertilizer inventory was 841,200 tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week. During the domestic compound fertilizer sales stage, the operation of most fertilizer enterprises was relatively stable. Individual fertilizer enterprises had short - stop maintenance and would gradually resume production in the near future. It is expected that the compound fertilizer capacity operation rate may increase next week. The operating load rate of melamine enterprises was 55.11%, a decrease of 1.93 percentage points from the previous week, and the weekly output was 27,160 tons [4][24][27] Inventory - Urea enterprise inventory was 1.094 million tons, an increase of 91,000 tons from the previous week, continuing the inventory accumulation trend. Urea port inventory was 797,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week, and the port inventory also remained at a high level. The number of registered urea warehouse receipts was 8,299, totaling 165,980 tons, an increase of 1,826 from the previous week, totaling 36,520 tons [4][31] Group 6: Key Points to Follow - Compound fertilizer start - up situation, urea device reduction and maintenance situation, export policy, and coal price fluctuations [4]