Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The main contract of natural rubber futures showed a strong and volatile trend last week with a significant overall increase. Looking ahead, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has been raised, and the macro - atmosphere remains warm. The supply side has some support, but there is still supply pressure later. The demand side performs well, and the inventory is continuously being depleted. It is expected that the market will maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term. Key factors to focus on include the Fed's interest rate cut, weather in rubber - producing areas, terminal demand changes, zero - tariff policy progress, and Sino - US tariff changes [8][87]. Summary by Directory Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2601 of natural rubber fluctuated between 15,720 - 16,370 yuan/ton, showing a strong and volatile trend with a significant overall increase. As of the close on September 5, 2025, it closed at 16,325 yuan/ton, rising 465 points or 2.93% for the week [16]. Spot Price - As of September 5, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 15,150 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week; the spot price of Thai three - smoke sheets (RSS3) was 20,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of Vietnamese 3L (SVR3L) was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan/ton [20]. - As of September 5, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,180 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton from last week [23]. Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis expanded slightly last week. As of September 5, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 1,175 yuan/ton, an increase of 215 yuan/ton from last week [27]. - As of September 5, 2025, both the domestic and foreign prices of natural rubber increased significantly compared with last week [30]. Important Market Information - US economic data: The US August non - farm payrolls increased by only 22,000, far less than the expected 75,000. The June non - farm payrolls were revised down from an increase of 27,000 to a decrease of 13,000. The August unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The probability of the Fed maintaining the interest rate unchanged in September is 0, the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 88.2%, and the probability of a 50 - basis - point cut is 11.7%. The August ISM manufacturing index rose slightly but was still below the boom - bust line, and the ISM services PMI index showed the fastest expansion in six months [31]. - Eurozone and China economic data: The Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI reached a three - year high and expanded for the first time since mid - 2022. China's August official manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI all increased slightly month - on - month. The real estate market had a decline in land market volume and price in August. The sales of TOP100 real estate enterprises from January to August decreased by 13.3% year - on - year [34]. - Rubber - related data: From January to July 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural rubber increased by 35.01% year - on - year, and the cumulative imports of mixed rubber increased by 12.47%. The cumulative imports of natural and mixed rubber increased by 21.92%. In July, China's rubber tire outer tire production decreased by 7.3% year - on - year, and from January to July, it increased by 0.7% year - on - year [36]. Supply - side Situation - As of July 31, 2025, the production in Vietnam's main rubber - producing area increased significantly from the previous month, while the production in Indonesia and Thailand increased slightly. The production in China, Malaysia, and India decreased slightly. The total production of major rubber - producing countries in July 2025 was 927,000 tons, an increase of 91,600 tons or 10.96% from the previous month [38]. - As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly synthetic rubber production was 737,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%, and the cumulative production was 5.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.1%. The import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 10,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.64% [43][47][51]. Demand - side Situation - As of September 4, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 67.47%, down 5.3% from last week, and the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 59.78%, down 4.06% from last week [54]. - As of July 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 2.5911 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.27%. The monthly sales were 2.5934 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 14.66% and a month - on - month decrease of 10.71%. The monthly sales of heavy - duty trucks were 84,885 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 45.62% and a month - on - month decrease of 13.26%. The monthly production of tire outer tires was 94.364 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 7.3%. The export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 66.65 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 10.51% [58][61][67][70][74]. Inventory - side Situation - As of September 5, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 162,230 tons, a decrease of 16,410 tons from last week. As of August 31, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.265 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6,000 tons or 0.5%. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China decreased by 0.09% month - on - month, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber decreased by 1.1% month - on - month. The total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 602,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons or 0.6% [84]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Currently in the peak supply season of global natural rubber, recent weather in Southeast Asian and domestic producing areas has restricted rubber tapping, supporting raw material prices. In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased by 2.47% month - on - month and decreased by 1.91% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 21.82% year - on - year, with a lower growth rate than in previous years [85]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of tire enterprises decreased significantly. All - steel tire enterprises had normal shipments and low inventory levels. Semi - steel tire exports to the EU slowed down. In July, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, and the heavy - duty truck market had a year - on - year increase in sales. The monthly production of tire outer tires decreased year - on - year, but the cumulative production from January to July increased slightly. The tire export volume in July increased year - on - year and month - on - month, and the cumulative export from January to July also increased year - on - year [86]. - Inventory: Last week, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased significantly, and China's natural rubber social inventory and Qingdao's total inventory decreased slightly month - on - month [86]. 后市展望 - Similar to the core view, the market is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to multiple factors [87]. 观点及操作策略 - This week's view: It is expected that the main contract of natural rubber futures will maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term. - Operation strategy: For single - side trading, consider buying on dips; for arbitrage and options, temporarily wait and see [10][88].
降息预期供需偏紧，盘面或将震荡偏强
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-09-08 03:23