本周纯碱价格持续承压
Hua Long Qi Huo·2025-09-08 03:20
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content available. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The soda ash market is expected to continue its oscillating bottoming pattern. Despite short - term boosts from supply contraction and inventory reduction, the key lies in whether the demand side can improve continuously. If the downstream glass market remains sluggish, the rebound space of soda ash prices will be limited. The market currently shows a pattern of weak supply and demand, with the core contradiction being the game between high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to continue the oscillating pattern. Attention should be paid to inventory reduction persistence, downstream demand recovery, and potential production cuts due to industry losses. Operation suggestions include looking for short - term oversold rebound opportunities in single - side trading, considering the 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage strategy, and using a bear spread strategy for option hedging [9][40]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情复盘 Last week, the price of the main soda ash contract SA2601 fluctuated narrowly between 1255 - 1311 yuan/ton. As of September 5, 2025, the main contract rose 6 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 0.46%, closing at 1302 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2基本面分析 - Supply: As of September 4, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash output was 751,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,700 tons (4.55%). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.22%, a month - on - month increase of 3.75% [7]. - Inventory: As of September 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8221 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,800 tons (0.15%). Light soda ash inventory was 750,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 1.0719 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4,200 tons) [8]. 3.3纯碱供需情况 - Output and Capacity Analysis: As of September 4, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash output was 751,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32,700 tons (4.55%). Light soda ash output was 340,500 tons (a month - on - month increase of 4,700 tons), and heavy soda ash output was 411,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 28,000 tons). The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.22%, a month - on - month increase of 3.75%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.40% (a month - on - month increase of 2.33%), and the combined - soda process capacity utilization rate was 79.36% (a month - on - month decrease of 5.01%). The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of over one million tons was 87.47%, a month - on - month increase of 6.72% [10][12]. - Inventory Analysis: As of September 4, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8221 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2,800 tons (0.15%). Light soda ash inventory was 750,200 tons (a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons), and heavy soda ash inventory was 1.0719 million tons (a month - on - month decrease of 4,200 tons) [14]. - Shipment Analysis: This week, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 797,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.56%. The overall shipment rate was 106.04%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Some enterprises had good shipments, leading to a decline in inventory [17]. - Profit Analysis: As of September 4, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 37.20 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 37.10 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of the combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 48 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 28 yuan/ton [20][24]. 3.4下游产业情况 - Float Glass Industry: As of September 4, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 28th. The weekly output from August 29 to September 4 was 1.117 million tons, the same as the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 4.95%. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.05 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month increase of 484,000 heavy boxes (0.77%) and a year - on - year decrease of 11.77%. The inventory days were 26.9 days, an increase of 0.2 days from the previous period [28][31]. 3.5现货市场情况 The prices of various products in different regions showed different trends. For example, the price of 5500 - calorie thermal coal decreased by 10 yuan/ton (1.42%); the price of well - mine salt in Northeast China decreased by 50 yuan/ton (3.57%); the price of light soda ash in North China decreased by 50 yuan/ton (3.7%); the price of float glass increased by 5 yuan/ton (0.43%); the price of 2.0 photovoltaic glass increased by 2 yuan/square meter (18.18%); etc. [37][39]. 3.6综合分析 The soda ash market last week showed a pattern of weak supply and demand, with prices oscillating. The supply - side pressure reappeared, and production and capacity utilization increased. The total inventory of producers decreased slightly but was still at a high level, especially the light soda ash inventory continued to accumulate. The demand was weak, with downstream industries purchasing on a just - in - time basis. The profit situation worsened, and both the ammonia - soda process and the combined - soda process were in deep losses. In the short - term, the market is expected to continue oscillating. Operation suggestions include short - term single - side trading, 01 - 05 reverse arbitrage, and using a bear spread strategy for option hedging [40].