海外策略周报：美联储降息预期升温，IEEPA关税前景不明-20250908

Group 1 - The report indicates that the U.S. added only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, significantly below market expectations, leading to increased speculation about a 50 basis points rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3][7][27] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for August was reported at 48.7%, indicating continued weakness in the manufacturing sector, with the new orders index rising to 51.4%, while the output index fell to 47.8% [8][9][27] - The report highlights that the market now sees a 89% probability of a 25 basis points rate cut and an 11% probability of a 50 basis points cut in September, following the disappointing employment data [5][7][27] Group 2 - The report discusses the recent ruling against Trump's IEEPA tariffs, which were deemed illegal by a U.S. appellate court, although they remain in effect during the appeal process [13][15] - The potential impact of the tariffs is significant, as they account for approximately 71% of all tariffs imposed by Trump, with the government appealing to the Supreme Court [15][16] - The report notes that if the Supreme Court upholds the ruling, it could lead to substantial changes in trade policy and market dynamics, with Trump potentially using alternative legal avenues to impose tariffs [15][16] Group 3 - The report suggests that the short-term outlook for U.S. stocks remains supported by the Fed's rate cut expectations, while the uncertainty surrounding the IEEPA tariffs could also influence market sentiment positively [2][20] - It recommends focusing on three main investment themes: technology growth sectors (AI, internet, semiconductors), sectors with improving industry conditions (new energy, building materials, traditional cycles), and new consumption areas benefiting from domestic policy support [2][20][27] - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market has shown relative strength amid positive domestic sentiment, with significant inflows from foreign capital [2][20]