中国宏观周报（2025年9月第1周）：“反内卷”预期边际升温-20250908

Industrial Sector - The production of raw materials shows a mixed trend, with cement clinker capacity utilization and float glass operating rates increasing, while daily pig iron output and asphalt operating rates have marginally adjusted[1] - The operating rates for polyester in textiles and weaving have seasonally increased, while the operating rates for full steel and semi-steel tires in the automotive sector have slightly decreased[1] Real Estate - New home sales in 30 major cities increased by 1.1% year-on-year as of September 5, with a notable 12.8% growth since the beginning of September, reversing the previous month's decline[1] - The index for second-hand home listing prices decreased by 0.46% week-on-week as of August 25[1] Domestic Demand - Movie box office revenue continues to outperform last year's figures, with daily average box office income reaching 81.9 million yuan, a 41.5% year-on-year increase[1] - Retail sales of automobiles in August totaled 1.952 million units, reflecting a 3% year-on-year growth, down from 7% in July[1] - The retail sales of major home appliances increased by 5.3% year-on-year as of August 29, up by 0.7 percentage points from the previous week[1] External Demand - Port cargo throughput increased by 5.8% year-on-year as of August 31, while container throughput rose by 9.0%[1] - The export container freight index decreased by 0.6% week-on-week, with Shanghai's export container freight index remaining stable and Ningbo's slightly declining[1] Price Trends - The South China industrial product index fell by 0.1%, while the black raw materials index rose by 0.3% and the non-ferrous metals index dropped by 0.3%[1] - Rebar futures prices increased by 1.7%, while spot prices fell by 1.1%; coking coal futures rose by 0.7%, with Shanxi coking coal spot prices declining by 1.3%[1]