市场转暖，油脂探底回升

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom. In the short - term, domestic vegetable oil prices are expected to continue the volatile trend due to the current ample supply of the domestic edible oil market and the uncertainty of Sino - US economic and trade relations [9][31]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - This week, the futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom. The Y2601 soybean oil contract rose 1.10% to close at 8,450 yuan/ton, the P2601 palm oil contract rose 2.25% to close at 9,526 yuan/ton, and the OI2601 rapeseed oil contract rose 0.30% to close at 9,818 yuan/ton [5][30]. 3.2 Important Information - Palm oil: From August 1 - 31, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production is estimated to increase by 2.07%. The total palm oil production in August is estimated to be 1.85 million tons. Malaysian palm oil rose 1.64% [7]. - Soybean oil: Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach a record this year, benefiting from record - high production and strong Chinese demand. In August, China accounted for 84% of Brazil's total soybean exports, compared with an average of 75% in the past four years. US soybeans fell 2.49% this week [7]. 3.3 Spot Analysis - As of September 4, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,580 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at the average level compared with the past 5 years [10]. - As of September 5, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,380 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively high level compared with the past 5 years [11]. - As of September 4, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,900 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [13]. 3.4 Other Data - As of August 29, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 53,000 tons to 1.42 million tons. On September 3, 2025, the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 67,000 tons to 601,000 tons [16]. - As of September 4, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,790,280 tons [20]. - As of September 4, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 224 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [21]. - As of September 5, 2025, the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was - 146 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [22]. - As of September 4, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 161 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared with the past 5 years [24]. 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - The futures prices of edible oils rebounded after hitting bottom this week. The domestic soybean oil spot market remains in a situation of loose supply and demand, with limited consumption boost from the start of the school term. The inventory of soybean oil in oil mills continues to increase and is at a high level in recent years. The spot price adjusts with the market. The spot price of rapeseed oil has risen slightly. The domestic oil mill operating rate has remained low recently, and the production of rapeseed oil is limited. Coupled with Chinese enterprises' suspension of purchasing Canadian rapeseed, the market has a strong mentality of supporting prices. The commercial inventories of the three major domestic edible oils are at high levels in recent years, and the inventories of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil have all increased year - on - year, indicating sufficient supply in the edible oil market. The Sino - US economic and trade relations are still uncertain, and there are still uncertainties in the future supply of soybeans and rapeseeds in China [9][31].