海通证券晨报-20250908

Group 1: Macro Research - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with August non-farm payrolls adding only 22,000 jobs, significantly below market expectations [3][27] - The unemployment rate is rising, but the increase is within market expectations, indicating a fragile balance in the labor market [4][29] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, influenced by weak employment data [4][29] Group 2: Overseas Strategy Research - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue its upward trend despite short-term performance pressures from the food delivery subsidy war [5][6] - The earnings growth forecast for Hong Kong stocks has been revised downwards, primarily due to the impact on consumer discretionary sectors, while materials, healthcare, and technology sectors are seeing upward revisions [7][8] - The narrative for Hong Kong internet companies is expected to shift towards AI empowerment in the fourth quarter, potentially improving earnings expectations [9] Group 3: Investment Banking and Brokerage Industry - New regulations have been proposed to lower sales fees for four types of funds, which is expected to concentrate sales channels and promote the development of buy-side advisory models [10][11] - The new rules encourage longer holding periods for investors and aim to protect investor interests, while also impacting smaller sales channels more significantly [12] - The impact of these regulations on major brokerage firms like Orient Securities and Tonghuashun is expected to be limited, with profit impacts estimated at 2%-5% for Orient Securities [12][14] Group 4: Overseas Report on Micron Technology - Micron Technology is projected to see total revenues of $37.32 billion, $48.96 billion, and $56.02 billion for 2025E-2027E, driven by AI demand and structural improvements [15][16] - The company's operating cash flow is expected to recover significantly, indicating a shift from inventory reduction to volume and price increases [16] - Micron's new HBM4 products are positioned to maintain its leadership in AI memory performance and efficiency [17]