Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term cotton market will experience range - bound fluctuations. Attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity. New cotton is about to be listed, and the expected increase in production will put pressure on cotton prices. However, the current low inventory in the industrial chain and the motivation for seasonal restocking provide support at the bottom. In the short term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate mainly within the range of 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading, and in the medium term, wait for the futures price to fall to an appropriate level before buying long - term contracts [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - Supply: USDA reduced the US cotton planting area by 8% to 9.3 million acres in August, and the harvested area by 15% to 7.4 million acres. The US cotton output was reduced by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons compared to the previous month, which has a moderately positive impact. However, China's cotton output was increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and there is still room for further increase. The new cotton in Xinjiang is growing well, and the cotton - picking work is ready [6]. - Demand: Domestic downstream consumption is sluggish. In the off - season, textile mills are not very willing to stock up. The operating rate has recovered slightly, with this week's operating rate at 66% compared to 65.9% last week. The weekly stocking willingness of weaving mills has slightly increased, with this week's operating rate at 37.4% compared to 37.2% last week. The profit loss of spinning mills has decreased, with this week's profit at - 1,352 yuan/ton compared to - 1,407 yuan/ton last week [6]. - Inventory: BCO announced that the national cotton social inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons compared to the end of June and a year - on - year decrease of 21%. According to Steel Union data, the national commercial inventory this week was 1.547 million tons, compared to 1.7126 million tons last week. The raw material inventory of textile mills this week was 27.5 (unit not specified), the same as last week. The yarn inventory of textile mills this week was 310,000 tons, compared to 313,000 tons last week [6]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 4, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 5,829, with 0 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 233,100 tons, compared to 260,500 tons on August 29 [6]. - Basis: As of September 5, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 15,350 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main CF2601 contract was 14,000 yuan/ton. As of September 4, the arrival price of US cotton M1 - 1/8 was reduced to 13,271 yuan/ton. The price of domestic 3128B lint cotton fluctuated and adjusted, with a quoted price of 15,370 yuan/ton. The domestic - foreign cotton price difference narrowed to 2,099 yuan/ton. The overall average cost of ginning factories this year, converted to the standard weight, is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan/ton. In the new year, with some production capacity of ginning factories in northern Xinjiang exiting and the overall poor demand outlook, the expected opening price will not be high. According to market research feedback in August, the planting cost in a certain area in southern Xinjiang is lower than last year, and it is estimated that the opening price of cotton in southern Xinjiang will be below 6 yuan/kg, and about 6.3 yuan/kg in northern Xinjiang [6]. - Macro: The main belief in the market is still anti - involution. With the recent weak economic data in China, the market is considering whether China will introduce more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. The hard data in the US has significantly weakened, and the non - farm payrolls data was disappointing again. The US Department of Labor data showed that the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 22,000 in August, far lower than the market expectation of 75,000 and the previous value of 73,000. At the same time, the non - farm payrolls data for June and July was revised down by a total of 21,000. The unemployment rate rose to the highest level since 2021. After the revision in this report, the average monthly increase in non - farm payrolls in the past three months was only 29,000. In September, a large amount of cotton will be on the market, and there is a strong expectation of a bumper harvest. Ginning enterprises are worried about price drops in the later period, and the mentality of industry players at the initial stage of harvesting is generally cautious. The improvement in the macro - environment is not expected to drive the enthusiasm for purchasing [6]. 02 Weekly Data Charts - Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the beginning inventory increased by 280,000 tons year - on - year; the output decreased by 548,000 tons year - on - year; the import increased by 550,000 tons year - on - year; the total supply increased by 282,000 tons year - on - year; the export increased by 520,000 tons year - on - year; the consumption increased by 8,000 tons year - on - year; the total consumption increased by 528,000 tons year - on - year; the ending inventory decreased by 246,000 tons year - on - year; the inventory - to - use ratio decreased by 0.98 percentage points year - on - year [10]. - Production of Major Global Producing Countries: From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton output decreased by 275,000 tons year - on - year. The output of China decreased by 1.56% year - on - year, the US decreased by 8.32% year - on - year, India decreased by 2.07% year - on - year, Pakistan remained unchanged, Australia decreased by 26.74% year - on - year, and Brazil increased by 7.38% year - on - year [11]. - Demand Changes in Major Global Producing Countries: From 2020/21 to 2025/26, the global cotton consumption increased by 0.02% year - on - year. The consumption of China decreased by 1.32% year - on - year, India decreased by 1.96% year - on - year, Pakistan increased by 0.94% year - on - year, Bangladesh decreased by 1.18% year - on - year, and Turkey and Vietnam remained unchanged [12]. - US Cotton Weather and Inventory: The weather is unlikely to disrupt US cotton. The overall US inventory cycle is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking. The clothing inventory of US wholesalers and retailers is transitioning from three - year continuous destocking to appropriate active restocking. The import - grabbing behavior of clothing wholesalers and retailers has pushed up the inventory. However, due to the "Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement" reached between China and the US in May, the temporary easing of tariffs and two import - grabbing behaviors in the first half of the year have led to the retailer inventory rising to a high point again, which has weakened the continuous restocking behavior to some extent [13][17]. - Domestic New - Year Planting and Inventory: The planting area in the new year has expanded, maintaining a pattern of loose supply. The cotton import volume is low, and textile mills are looking forward to import quotas. The destocking speed of China's cotton commercial inventory is relatively fast. As of the end of July, the national cotton social inventory was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons compared to the end of June and a year - on - year decrease of 21%. According to Steel Union data, the national commercial inventory this week was 1.547 million tons [21][42].
棉花周报：短期区间震荡，等待新花收购-20250908
Guo Lian Qi Huo·2025-09-08 04:49