白糖周报：内外盘下跌趋势仍在-20250908

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the downward trend of both domestic and foreign sugar markets persists. Fundamentally, potential new import licenses and unexpectedly high syrup imports will continue to pressure the market. The Zhengzhou sugar futures contract is expected to decline after the macro - heat subsides, with limited upward space near the 5500 price support level. Rolling short - selling is recommended [9]. Summary by Directory 01 Week - ly Core Points and Strategies - Supply: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 318,200 tons. From January to July 2025, cumulative imports were 1.7778 million tons, a 3.12% increase. Imported syrups and sugar premixes totaled 159,700 tons in July, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons. The supply situation is bearish, but the staggered supply of processed and domestic sugar eases market pressure. Continuous attention should be paid to the arrival of imported sugar [9]. - Demand: Despite being in the domestic consumption peak season, demand release is lower than expected, and the concentrated supply of processed sugar is increasing supply pressure, so the demand outlook is bearish [9]. - Inventory: Domestic sugar mills have low inventories, but social inventories are at a moderately high level. The possible issuance of a second batch of import licenses will put pressure on processed sugar in the later stage, and the inventory situation is neutral [9]. - Warehouse Receipts: As of September 5, the registered sugar warehouse receipts were 12,476, with 6 valid forecasts, totaling 12,482, down from 13,917 the previous week. The warehouse receipt situation is neutral [9]. - Basis: The spot and futures prices are both declining, market trading sentiment is cautious, and downstream buyers are mostly on the sidelines. The overall spot trading is light, and the basis situation is neutral [9]. - Profit: The out - of - quota import cost from Brazil has dropped significantly, and the out - of - quota import profit has increased slightly. The profit situation is neutral [9]. - Macro: In China, there are expectations of more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter due to weak economic data. In the US, hard data has weakened significantly, with disappointing non - farm payrolls data and the unemployment rate reaching a new high since 2021. The macro situation is neutral [9]. - Strategy: The Zhengzhou sugar futures contract is under pressure. With potential negative factors in the later stage, the 01 contract may rebound near the 5500 price support level, but the upward space is limited. Rolling short - selling is advisable [9]. 02 This Week's Sugar Market News - Global Supply - Demand: The ISO predicts a 231,000 - ton supply deficit in the 2025/26 sugar season, a significant reduction compared to the 4879,000 - ton deficit in the 2024/25 season. Global sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to reach 180.593 million tons, an increase of 5.419 million tons from the previous season [14]. - Brazilian Production and Shipping: In the first half of August, Brazil's central - southern region had a sugarcane crush of 47.63 million tons, an 8.17% year - on - year increase, and sugar production was 3.615 million tons, a 15.96% increase. As of September 3, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports increased to 87, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 3.207 million tons, a 17.81% increase from the previous week [14][15]. 03 Weekly Sugar Data - Foreign (Brazil): - In the first half of August, the sugarcane crush in Brazil's central - southern region increased by 3.596 million tons year - on - year, and sugar production increased by 497,000 tons [20]. - As of the first half of August in the 2025/26 season, cumulative sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region decreased by 1.12 million tons year - on - year, a 4.67% decline [23]. - Domestic: - The domestic sugar production in the 2024 - 2025 season was 11.1621 million tons, a 12.03% increase year - on - year, slightly lower than expected [26]. - As of June, the cumulative sugar sales were 7.3834 million tons, a 7.34% increase year - on - year, and the sales rate was 74.11%, a 2.54 - percentage - point slowdown [30]. - The cumulative sugar sales reached 8.1138 million tons, a 23.07% increase year - on - year, and the sales rate was 72.69%, a 6.52 - percentage - point acceleration [33]. - In July 2025, imports of syrups and sugar premixes totaled 159,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,600 tons [41]. - The out - of - quota import cost has decreased this week [45]. - As of September 5, the total number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased from the previous week [48].