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深圳政策调整点评:八个行政区限购大幅放松,有望对金九银十形成支撑
KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-09-08 05:59

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent policy adjustments in Shenzhen, including the relaxation of purchase restrictions and mortgage rates, are expected to support the real estate market during the "Golden September and Silver October" period [5][6][7] - The average monthly transaction volume for second-hand homes in Shenzhen is projected to rebound to around 6,000 units in September and October, following a decline to approximately 5,200 units in August [8] - The overall real estate market in China is moving towards stabilization, with potential for slight fluctuations in housing prices as various policies take effect [8] Summary by Sections Policy Adjustments - Shenzhen has significantly relaxed purchase restrictions in several districts, allowing for more flexibility in home buying [6] - The new policy eliminates the distinction between first and second home mortgage rates, potentially lowering the cost for homebuyers [7] Market Performance - From October 2024 to April 2025, the average monthly transaction volume for second-hand homes reached 7,000 units, with year-on-year growth exceeding 100% in the last quarter of 2024 [8] - The report anticipates that the real estate market will continue to stabilize, supported by favorable fiscal and monetary policies [8] Recommended Stocks - The report recommends several companies based on their strong fundamentals and ability to meet improving customer demand, including: - Green Town China, China Merchants Shekou, China Overseas Development, Jianfa Group, Binjiang Group, Jianfa International Group [8] - Companies benefiting from both real estate recovery and consumption promotion policies, such as China Resources Land, New Town Holdings, and Longfor Group [8] - High-quality property management firms with strong service quality, including China Resources Mixc Life, Greentown Service, Poly Property, and others [8]