公募基金赎回费新规点评：基金赎回费新规对债市有何影响？

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report is bullish on the bond market in the short - term, predicting that the 10 - year Treasury yield will fluctuate downward, with an expected range of 1.6% - 1.8% in the second half of the year [2] Report's Core View - The new regulations on public fund redemption fees are about to be implemented, aiming to reduce investor costs, optimize redemption arrangements, encourage long - term holding, and standardize fund sales fees [2] - The new redemption fee regulations will restrict frequent redemptions and subscriptions, but their impact on the bond market is limited, with only possible trading frictions on credit bonds and convertible bonds [2] - The new regulations will increase the attractiveness of retail bond funds and money funds to individual investors and enhance the stability of bond fund scales [2][3] - The era of bond ETFs may be coming, and institutions such as wealth management, annuities, and insurance funds may prefer bond ETFs [3] - The decline in bank liability costs will support the downward fluctuation of bond yields [2] Summary by Related Catalogs New Regulations on Public Fund Redemption Fees - On September 5, the CSRC publicly solicited opinions on the "Regulations on the Administration of Sales Fees of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds (Exposure Draft)", including reducing subscription, purchase, and service fees, optimizing redemption arrangements, and setting differential trailing commission payment ratio caps [2] Current Situation of Fund Investment - As of the end of June 2025, the total public fund holdings of A - share listed banks were 6.01 trillion yuan, slightly down 0.07 trillion yuan from the beginning of the year. It is estimated that the self - operated fund holdings of commercial banks in the first half of 2025 were 8.02 trillion yuan, accounting for 31.9% of the fixed - income fund scale in the first half of 2025 [2] - As of the end of March 2025, the scale ratios of medium - and long - term bond funds, short - term bond funds, first - level bond funds, and second - level bond funds in the bond funds allocated by wealth management were 49.0%, 21.4%, 12.0%, and 3.3% respectively. In the first quarter of 2025, the total holdings of medium - and long - term bond funds and short - term bond funds by wealth management were 0.58 trillion yuan [2] Impact of New Redemption Fee Regulations - The new regulations require that the redemption fees be fully included in the fund property, with different fee standards for different holding periods, which will affect the trading demand of institutional investors for bond funds and fixed - income + funds [2] - The new regulations have limited impact on the bond market. Wealth management and annuities may gradually shift their pure bond fund investments to bond ETFs, but the impact on the bond market is limited due to the small scale of actively managed bond funds held by wealth management [2] - The new regulations reduce the sales service fees of bond funds and money funds, increase their yields, and enhance their attractiveness to individual investors, which is conducive to the growth of retail bond fund and money fund scales [2][3] Outlook for the Bond Market - The bond ETF era may be coming. As of the end of August 2025, the scale of bond ETFs had reached 56.43 billion yuan, and it may grow rapidly in the next few years [3] - With the gradual repricing of long - term time deposits, the interest - bearing liability cost rate of commercial banks is expected to decline year by year in the next five years, and the 10 - year Treasury yield may follow the decline [2]