东海证券晨会纪要-20250908

Group 1: Key Recommendations - Gold prices have reached new highs, and with the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it is recommended to allocate assets towards technology, consumer, and non-ferrous sectors [6][8] - The non-farm payroll data for August 2025 was below expectations, indicating a potential shift towards recession trading in the market [11][12] - Jinchuang Group (603680) is highlighted for its strong profit growth and ability to seize industry opportunities [19][20] - The domestic chip replacement is accelerating, and investments in AI computing power by domestic cloud vendors continue to grow [23][24] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The Eurozone's GDP for Q2 was revised to a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, slightly above the expected 1.4% [31] - The U.S. President has exempted several key commodity tariffs, which may impact various sectors [32] - Shenzhen has further optimized its real estate policy measures to stimulate the market [33] - China's foreign exchange reserves increased to $3,322.2 billion by the end of August, reflecting a rise of $29.9 billion [34] Group 3: Company Analysis - Jinchuang Group - In H1 2025, Jinchuang Group achieved revenue of 2.512 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.04%, with net profit rising by 149.29% [20][21] - The company has a diversified product range for rail transit vehicles, covering various safety and operational systems [20] - The rail transit industry is experiencing an overall increase in demand, with significant investments in fixed assets and passenger traffic growth [21][22] Group 4: Semiconductor Industry Insights - The semiconductor industry showed signs of recovery in August, with expanding price increases and structural opportunities in AI computing and semiconductor equipment [24][26] - Demand for semiconductors is improving, particularly in AI servers and new energy vehicles, with expectations for continued recovery in September [26][27] - Domestic cloud vendors are seeing significant contributions from cloud business, with capital expenditures on the rise to support AI infrastructure [29][30]