8月非农数据助力降息，金价继续走牛

Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gold price is on a bullish trend due to the support of the US employment data and the expectation of Fed rate cuts. The gold price has strong fundamental support and is expected to continue rising in the medium to long term [1][2][5] Summary by Related Content Gold Price Performance - Last week, the gold futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 822.78 yuan per gram, surging over 3% for the whole week. The international gold price broke through $3,600 per ounce and closed at $3,639 per ounce on Friday, both hitting record highs [1] US Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations - The US July PCE data is not expected to affect the September rate cut as the employment market is weakening. The JOLTS job - vacancy data and the unemployment - relief application report indicate a cooling labor market. The number of first - time unemployment - relief applicants last week rose to 237,000, 8,000 more than the previous week [1] - The US August non - farm payrolls added only 22,000 jobs, far lower than market expectations, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. After the data release, the market fully expects a Fed rate cut in September, with an 89% probability of a 25 - basis - point cut and an 11% probability of a 50 - basis - point cut. The probability of another 25 - basis - point cut in October is close to 80% [2] - The market predicts that the US August CPI will rise 0.3% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year. As long as inflation does not rebound significantly, it will not affect the September rate cut. Considering Trump's pressure and the weak employment data, a preventive 25 - basis - point rate cut in September is more likely, followed by another 25 - basis - point cut in October. There may be a total of 2 to 3 rate cuts this year, amounting to 50 to 75 basis points. There is at least 150 basis points of rate - cut space from the current 4.25% - 4.5% interest - rate level [4] Gold Price Outlook - The gold price has broken through the consolidation platform and shows a strong upward trend. Although there may be short - term consolidation due to the large short - term gains, the callback space is limited. In the medium to long term, the international gold price may attack the 4,000 mark, and the domestic gold price may challenge 900 yuan per gram [5]