Report Title - Paper Pulp: The traditional peak season in the downstream is lackluster, and the pulp price will mainly fluctuate within a range [1] Report Date - Zhengxin Futures Paper Pulp Weekly Report 20250908 [2] Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the continuous destocking of port inventories, the acceptable ability to receive new foreign offers, the planned resumption of production of some downstream paper mills that had shut down, and the entry of the white cardboard market into the traditional peak season, the overall demand has slightly improved, but the improvement is less than expected. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2511 contract will mainly fluctuate within the range of 4,950 - 5,210 this week [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - Spot Pulp Price Review: Last week, the spot market price of pulp rebounded slightly. In Shandong, the price of coniferous pulp Silver Star rose by 20 yuan/ton (or +0.35%) to 5,720 yuan/ton, and the price of Northern Wood rose by 50 yuan/ton (or +0.83%) to 6,050 yuan/ton. The price of broadleaf pulp Goldfish and Bird both rose by 50 yuan/ton (or +1.19% and +1.2% respectively) to 4,200 yuan/ton. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural pulp, and non-wood pulp remained flat [11][15]. - Pulp Futures Review: The main pulp futures contract SP2511 rebounded slightly within a 100-point range last week, closing at 5,062 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton (or +0.88%) for the week. The weighted trading volume was 1.375 million lots, a decrease of 116,000 lots, and the weighted open interest was 345,000 lots, a decrease of 11,600 lots [16]. - Pulp Futures-Spot Basis Comparison: The basis discount of coniferous wood pulp to the closing price of the main futures contract was 658 yuan/ton, a reduction of 24 yuan/ton compared to last week [20]. - Log Futures Review: The main log futures contract 2511 showed a downward trend last week, closing at 800.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 20.0 yuan/cubic meter (or -2.44%) compared to last week. The weighted trading volume was 63,200 lots, a decrease of 8,300 lots, and the weighted open interest was 22,300 lots, an increase of 3,300 lots [21]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - Weekly Pulp Production: Last week, the pulp production was 487,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons (or +1.04%). The production of broadleaf pulp was 211,000 tons, and the production of chemical mechanical pulp was 211,000 tons. It is expected that the domestic production of broadleaf pulp will be about 206,000 tons and the production of chemical mechanical pulp will be about 209,000 tons this week [5][23]. - Capacity Utilization: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic broadleaf pulp was 78.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.8%, while the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 82.0%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.6% due to the addition of new sample capacity [26]. - Monthly Pulp Production: In August 2025, the domestic pulp production was 2.127 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons (or +0.14%). The production of wood pulp was 1.816 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons (or +0.17%), and the production of non - wood pulp was 311,000 tons, remaining flat [28]. - Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical Pulp and Broadleaf Pulp: In August 2025, the production of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 892,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons (or -0.45%), and the capacity utilization rate was 81.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1%. The production of broadleaf pulp was 924,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7,000 tons (or +0.76%), and the capacity utilization rate was 80.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% [33]. - Monthly Production Margin: In August 2025, the production margin of broadleaf pulp was 526 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 13.3 yuan/ton (or +2.59%), and a year - on - year decrease of 757.92 yuan/ton (or -59.0%). The production margin of chemical mechanical pulp was - 304.6 yuan/ton, a month - on - month reduction of losses by 3.3 yuan/ton [37]. - Pulp Import Volume: In July 2025, the pulp import volume was 2.8768 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 153,800 tons (or -5.08%), and a year - on - year increase of 552,200 tons (or +23.75%). The cumulative import volume from January to July 2025 was 21.4554 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.295 million tons (or +6.5%) [38]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Tissue Paper Market: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 281,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons (or -0.11%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.7%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.09% [42]. - Downstream Cultural Paper Market: Last week, the production of coated paper was 78,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons (or -1.27%), and the capacity utilization rate was 57.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.2%. The production of offset paper was 195,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons (or -4.88%), and the capacity utilization rate was 52.9%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.7% [45]. - Downstream Packaging Paper Market: - White Cardboard and White Board Paper: Last week, the production of white cardboard was 338,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 17,000 tons (or +5.3%), and the capacity utilization rate was 77.88%, a week - on - week increase of 3.92%. The production of white board paper was 174,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 7,000 tons (or -3.87%), and the capacity utilization rate was 61.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.91% [48]. - Corrugated Paper and Box Board Paper: Last week, the production of corrugated paper was 470,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,500 tons (or -0.53%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.05%. The production of box board paper was 623,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9,300 tons (or -1.47%), and the capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.04% [51]. - Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis: - Tissue Paper: The prices of wood pulp, bamboo pulp, and sugarcane pulp base paper in Shandong, Sichuan, and Guangxi remained flat last week [52]. - Cultural Paper: The price of 70g offset paper Chenming Yunbao in Shandong decreased by 50 yuan/ton (or -1.02%) to 4,850 yuan/ton, and the price of 157g coated paper Chenming Xuelu decreased by 100 yuan/ton (or -1.96%) to 5,000 yuan/ton [52]. - White Board Paper and White Cardboard: The prices of white board paper in Shandong remained flat, while the price of 250 - 400g white cardboard Dan顶鹤 in Jiangsu increased by 50 yuan/ton (or +1.35%) to 3,760 yuan/ton [56]. - Corrugated Paper and Box Board Paper: The prices of box board paper in Shandong remained flat, and most prices of corrugated paper also remained flat, except for the 120g AAA - grade high - strength corrugated paper, which increased by 70 yuan/ton (or +2.47%) to 2,900 yuan/ton [58]. - Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization: - Tissue Paper and White Cardboard: In August 2025, the domestic tissue paper production was 1.2437 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6,700 tons (or +0.54%), and the capacity utilization rate was 62.37%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96%. The production of white cardboard was 1.41 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons (or +4.44%), and the capacity utilization rate was 82%, a month - on - month increase of 7.41% [60]. - Offset Paper and Coated Paper: In August 2025, the production of domestic offset paper was 917,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33,000 tons (or +3.73%), and the capacity utilization rate was 60.47%, a month - on - month increase of 4.51%. The production of coated paper was 345,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons (or -0.29%), and the capacity utilization rate was 63.86%, a month - on - month increase of 6.26% [63]. - Domestic Pulp Actual Consumption: In August 2025, the actual domestic pulp consumption was 3.402 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 81,000 tons (or +2.44%), and a year - on - year increase of 99,000 tons (or +3.03%) [65]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - Pulp Port Inventory: Currently, the overall port inventory is in a destocking trend. The inventory of mainstream port samples is 2.066 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18,000 tons (or -0.86%). Among them, the inventory in Qingdao Port is 1.415 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 25,000 tons (or +1.8%). The inventory in Changshu Port is 482,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 33,000 tons (or -6.41%), and the inventory in Tianjin Port is 60,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5,000 tons (or -7.69%) [70][73]. - Futures Pulp Warehouse Receipts: Currently, the pulp futures warehouse receipts are 236,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,853 tons (or -0.78%). The total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 219,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,754 tons (or -0.8%) [74].
纸浆：下游传统旺季不旺，浆价区间震荡为主
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-08 06:51