随着市场悲观情绪释放，螺矿盘面开始有所企稳

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View As the recent raw material prices have strengthened significantly compared to finished product prices, the short - term profitability of steel mills has continued to shrink. The production of five major steel products has decreased significantly due to profit compression and military parade - related production restrictions. Short - term steel apparent demand has also declined, and inventory accumulation has gradually increased. With the gradual release of market pessimism, the futures market has a technical rebound demand. For iron ore, after the release of risks, the short - term futures market is expected to stabilize slightly [5][8][10]. 3. Summary by Category [A] Steel Rebar - Futures: This week, the rebar 01 contract maintained a narrow - range consolidation trend driven by the increase in short - selling positions of the main players. As of Friday, it closed at 3143 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan from last week, a weekly decline of 0.54% [5]. - Spot: This week, the prices of mainstream rebar regions continued to decline slightly, and overall transactions were average. As of Friday, the national average rebar price dropped 39 yuan to 3287 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamentals - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 80.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.80% and a year - on - year increase of 2.77%. The rebar weekly output decreased by 1.88 tons to 218.68 tons, still at a low level year - on - year [5]. - Demand: This week, the building material trading volume and the apparent consumption of rebar continued to decline slightly. The 5 - day average building material trading volume decreased by 0.53 tons to 9.11 tons, and the apparent rebar demand decreased by 2.14 tons to 202.07 tons [8]. - Inventory: This week, the inventory of five major steel products and rebar continued to accumulate. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory increased by 16.61 tons to 640.0 tons [8]. - Basis: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for rebar in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, with a premium of 97 yuan over the rebar 01 contract, a month - on - month contraction of 13 yuan [8]. [B] Iron Ore - Futures: This week, the iron ore 01 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation trend driven by the main long - position players first reducing and then increasing positions. As of Friday, it closed at 789.5 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan/ton from last week, a weekly increase of 0.25% [8]. - Spot: This week, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties generally increased slightly, and the prices of domestic iron ore concentrates began to rise steadily with average overall transactions [8]. - Fundamentals - Supply: As of the 1st, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2902.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 141.7 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2526.0 tons, a month - on - month increase of 132.7 tons [10]. - Demand: Currently, the daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports is 317.78 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.87 tons. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 228.84 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.29 tons [10]. - Inventory: As of the 5th, the iron ore inventory at 45 ports continued to decline slightly, currently at 13825.32 tons, a month - on - month increase of 62.3 tons [10]. - Basis: As of Friday, the optimal delivery products of PB fines and Newman fines at Qingdao Port were 824 yuan/ton, with a premium of 35 yuan over the iron ore 01 contract, the same as last week [10].