铜周报：铜价短期弱势企稳-20250908

Report Overview - Report Title: "Caida Futures | Copper Weekly Report 2025-9-8" [1] - Core View: Due to the U.S. employment data falling far short of expectations, the market's concerns about recession outweigh the benefits of interest rate cuts, but the domestic loose policy tone continues. If the concerns do not escalate, the subsequent decline in domestic copper smelting output and low inventory levels are still expected to support a slight price rebound. It is expected that the price may weaken slightly this week before stabilizing [5] Market Conditions Review - Last week, the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and strengthened slightly. The closing price on Friday was 80,140 yuan/ton, about a 0.92% increase from the previous week [6] Supply and Demand Analysis - SMM expects the copper output in September to decline by 52,500 tons or 4.48% month-on-month to 1.119 million tons. There are 5 smelters under maintenance, and the decline in September output is mainly due to the large-scale production cut caused by the tight supply of anode copper [4] - The operating rate of SMM copper cable enterprises is 66.75%, both lower than the previous period and the same period last year and lower than expected. High copper prices significantly suppress demand in various fields, and the overall performance of the copper cable industry is mediocre [4] - The operating rate of brass rod enterprises is 49%, a 0.51 percentage point decline from the previous period. The industry's operating level is still below the middle level. Entering the traditional peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", most enterprises reported that terminal orders have not significantly recovered, and the continuous high - temperature weather in some areas has also delayed the production recovery rhythm, with weak demand recovery [4] - In the real estate and infrastructure fields, the performance is mediocre and difficult to provide strong support; the refrigeration industry is still in the off - season, and coupled with the continuous high copper prices, the downstream procurement willingness is significantly suppressed [4] - There will be a concentrated maintenance period for smelters in mid - to late September. With the current high copper prices and lackluster demand, the market is expected to show a pattern of weak supply and demand [4] Macroeconomic Analysis - The U.S. non - farm payrolls data in August dropped significantly to 22,000, far lower than market expectations, indicating a weak U.S. job market. The probability of an interest rate cut this month and two interest rate cuts within the year has increased [4]