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PTA:加工费低位,PTA有弱反弹预期,MEG:新投预期下,MEG反弹乏力
Zheng Xin Qi Huo·2025-09-08 07:18
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA has a weak rebound expectation due to low processing fees, with domestic supply having an incremental expectation, terminal load slowly rising, and tight supply - demand leading to continuous de - stocking and low valuation after continuous decline [1][6]. - MEG has a weak rebound under the expectation of new capacity investment. Although the supply - demand structure is marginally improving and it is in the de - stocking cycle, the supply pressure after the new device is put into production is large, and it is expected to continue the volatile pattern [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - Market Review: OPEC+ plans to increase production in October, increasing the risk of supply surplus. The end of the traditional fuel peak season leads to a seasonal decline in demand, and international oil prices are under pressure. PX prices fall due to weak cost support from oil prices and weak downstream market support. As of September 5, the Asian PX closing price is 830 US dollars/ton CFR China, down 18.67 US dollars/ton from August 29 [18]. - PX Capacity Utilization: The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 84.63%, flat compared with last week; the Asian PX weekly average capacity utilization rate is 74.45%, also flat. Pay attention to the restart rhythm of the Fuhai Chuang device [22]. - PX - Naphtha Spread: As of September 5, the PX - naphtha spread is 233.8 US dollars/ton, down 17.54 US dollars/ton from August 29. Next week, PX supply - demand changes are limited, and the spread compression this week is obvious, so the short - term downward space is expected to be limited [26]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - Market Review: This week, the overall PTA supply remains at a low level. Although some polyester enterprises that had been under maintenance restarted, due to weak costs and concerns about future supply increments, PTA oscillated weakly. As of September 5, the PTA spot price is 4585 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 2601 - 74 [29]. - Capacity Utilization: The PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate drops to 69.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.38%. In September, some devices are expected to restart, and the domestic PTA device capacity utilization rate is expected to reach around 78% [32]. - Processing Fees: The short - term PTA supply - demand remains tight, but there is an expectation of device restart and weak demand, so the PTA processing fees are expected to continue the weak pattern [36]. - Supply - Demand in September: In September, with the restart of maintenance devices and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand is expected to shift from de - stocking to a loose balance [38]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - Market Trend: Due to the news of new capacity investment, the supply - side pressure intensifies, and the ethylene glycol market shows a weak trend. As of September 5, the closing price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang is 4488 yuan/ton, and the delivered price in the South China market is 4480 yuan/ton [42]. - Domestic Output: The domestic ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate is 67.45%, a month - on - month increase of 2.34%. Some integrated devices restart after maintenance, and the domestic output slightly increases. In September, the overall output of ethylene glycol is expected to continue to rise [47]. - Port Inventory: As of September 4, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports in East China is 37.63 tons, a decrease of 1.33 tons from September 1 and 3.69 tons from August 28 [50]. - Processing Profits: The processing profits of ethylene glycol vary by process. As of September 5, the profit of naphtha - based ethylene glycol is - 98.42 US dollars/ton, down 10.54 US dollars/ton from last week; the profit of coal - based ethylene glycol is - 56.7 yuan/ton, down 22.79 yuan/ton from last week [53]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - Polyester Output Expectation: The polyester weekly average capacity utilization rate is 87.34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.68%. Next week, some previously reduced - production devices are expected to restart, and the domestic polyester output is expected to increase slightly [57]. - Polyester Capacity Utilization in September: In September, due to the expectation of the traditional peak season, the restart of some devices, and the expected commissioning of new devices, the monthly polyester load is expected to rise [60]. - Polyester Filament Capacity Utilization: The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester filament drops slightly. The capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber remains stable, and the capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips increases [63]. - Product Inventory: Although some enterprises have high sales volume, the overall sales level is average, and the polyester finished product inventory accumulates slightly [64]. - Product Cash Flow: The polymerization cost decreases, the polyester filament quotation is relatively firm, and the profits of most models are repaired, but the overall profit level of DTY is poor [67]. - Terminal Market: The terminal market sentiment improves, the comprehensive starting rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions rises, the average order days increase, and the inventory is slightly reduced, but the inventory level is still high [72]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - Cost Side: International oil prices are weak, and PX prices fall due to weak cost and downstream support [74]. - Supply Side: The PTA capacity utilization rate decreases, and the MEG capacity utilization rate increases [74]. - Demand Side: The polyester capacity utilization rate increases, the terminal weaving starting rate rises, and the order days increase [74]. - Inventory: PTA has a strong expectation of inventory accumulation in the long - term, and MEG port inventory decreases [75].