Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - On August 12, the Ministry of Commerce announced that Canadian rapeseed constituted dumping in China. Since August 14, importers of Canadian rapeseed have to pay a deposit, which dampens traders' enthusiasm for imports and restricts the subsequent domestic rapeseed supply. As Canadian rapeseed accounts for about 90% of the total imported rapeseed, the preliminary anti - dumping review has a huge impact on the domestic rapeseed industry [1][21]. - The domestic supplementary import routes after the import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked are analyzed. Firstly, the re - import of Australian rapeseed: the production of Australian rapeseed in the 24/25 and 25/26 seasons is 6.396 million tons and 6.448 million tons respectively, with an annual export volume of about 5 million tons. For the 24/25 season, due to purchases by other importing countries and domestic consumption, the remaining old - crop Australian rapeseed is scarce, so the export potential to China is mainly reflected in the 25/26 season. The conservative estimate of the export capacity of Australian rapeseed to China in the 25/26 season is about 1 - 2 million tons. Secondly, increasing the import volume of rapeseed oil: the market estimates that the production of Russian rapeseed oil in the 25/26 season will increase year - on - year to 5.15 - 5.3 million tons, and its export to the EU is still difficult. The annual export volume of Russian rapeseed oil to China is expected to increase to 1.5 million tons. The total annual export volume of rapeseed oil from Russia, Belarus, and the UAE is estimated to be about 2 million tons [1][2][21][22]. - In terms of subsequent domestic supply, in 2025, the domestic consumption of rapeseed oil is average, with a monthly consumption of about 240,000 - 270,000 tons and an estimated annual total consumption of 2.88 - 3.24 million tons. After subtracting the 2 million tons of imported rapeseed oil, there is still a gap of 880,000 - 1.24 million tons of rapeseed oil, which is approximately equivalent to 2 - 2.88 million tons of imported rapeseed. In the most ideal situation, even importing only rapeseed oil can make up for the consumption gap, and the rapeseed oil inventory is at a historical high. Although there is still a supply gap caused by the difficulty in importing Canadian rapeseed after August, the amplitude of the gap may not be large [2][22]. - In terms of rhythm, before the large - scale import of new - crop rapeseed and rapeseed oil in November this year, the domestic rapeseed supply gap is the most obvious, and the expectation of accelerated inventory depletion of rapeseed oil remains unchanged. After November, it is the peak consumption season for rapeseed oil, but new - crop rapeseed and rapeseed oil start to be imported, so the supply - demand tension may be weaker than before November. As for the rapeseed supply - demand situation in 2026, it depends more on the actual export capacity of Australian rapeseed to China [3][19][22][23]. - In the short term, due to the abundant harvest of Australian rapeseed, the news of Canadian politicians visiting China to discuss rapeseed anti - dumping, the domestic trial import of Australian rapeseed, and the decline of other oils, domestic rapeseed oil currently lacks the impetus for a sharp rise. However, the supply gap before the new - crop rapeseed and rapeseed oil enter the domestic market in November supports its bottom, and the overall trend is high - level oscillation. In the medium - to - long term, the supply gap caused by the difficulty in importing Canadian rapeseed products still exists, but the amplitude is limited, and the medium - to - long - term trend of rapeseed oil is cautiously bullish. The short - term support for the rapeseed oil 01 contract is 9,700 - 9,600, and the pressure is 10,000. Adopt the strategy of buying on dips, and also pay attention to the performance of the 11 - 01 positive spread [3][23]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. China - Australia relations improve, and Australia is expected to become a new major source of domestic rapeseed imports - Australia is the world's second - largest rapeseed exporter. China imported Australian rapeseed intermittently before 2021. According to the Australian Ministry of Agriculture, the estimated production of old - crop rapeseed in the 24/25 season is 6.396 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 5.79%). In the 25/26 season, although the sown area of new - crop rapeseed decreased, high yields were achieved due to no severe weather problems during the sowing period. The production is expected to increase slightly to 6.448 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 0.78%), much higher than the June estimate of 5.71 million tons, changing from a year - on - year decrease to a year - on - year increase [6]. - In terms of export capacity to China, before the new - crop rapeseed is harvested and enters the market in large quantities in November, the export capacity of Australian old - crop rapeseed to China is very limited. By the end of June 2025, only 726,000 tons of old - crop rapeseed remained. After deducting the subsequent domestic consumption, only 226,000 tons of old - crop rapeseed are available for export. Moreover, currently, French rapeseed is still at a high price globally, and exporting to the EU is more profitable. The fact that China's recent imports are all new - crop rapeseed after November rather than old - crop Australian rapeseed also verifies this [7]. - For new - crop rapeseed, in the 25/26 season, the production of Australian rapeseed is basically the same as that of the previous season, and the Australian Ministry of Agriculture estimates an export target of 5.2 million tons. Currently, China has allowed the trial import of Australian rapeseed. Market news indicates that there are already 5 ships with a cargo volume of 65,000 tons each for the November - January shipping period, with a total of 325,000 tons of Australian rapeseed to be imported in three months, and there are also 4 undetermined ships for the same period. In the most ideal situation, the export volume of Australian rapeseed to China may reach 4 - 5 million tons. However, in reality, China's annual import volume of Australian rapeseed is more likely to be around 1 - 2 million tons. In terms of rhythm, new - crop Australian rapeseed usually starts to be imported in large quantities in November, and the pressure is more likely to be reflected in the 01 contract rather than the 11 contract [8]. II. Diversification of domestic rapeseed oil imports intensifies, and rapeseed oil from Russia, the UAE, and Belarus is expected to increase imports to supplement the supply - Different from rapeseed, which is 90% dependent on Canadian imports, the diversification of domestic rapeseed oil imports is higher. The import of Russian rapeseed oil accounts for nearly 60%. In addition, rapeseed oil from the UAE, Ukraine, and Belarus can also be imported. Since 2024, the import volume of Canadian rapeseed oil has shrunk significantly, and after China imposed a 100% anti - dumping duty on Canadian rapeseed oil in March 2025, the import channel was completely blocked [10]. - In terms of Russian rapeseed oil, the market generally believes that the production of new - crop rapeseed in the 25/26 season will increase year - on - year. The USDA's August estimate of production is 5.3 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 13.98%), and IKAR's estimate is 5.15 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 10.52%). The increase in production is conducive to enhancing Russia's export capacity of rapeseed oil. The USDA's August estimate of 1.4 million tons of exports (a year - on - year increase of 3.7%) may be revised upwards later. Currently, Russia has not opened up its export to the EU, so China remains its preferred export destination. According to customs data, from January to July 2025, China imported a total of 750,000 tons of rapeseed oil, and the annual import volume is estimated to be about 1.5 million tons [10]. - In addition to Russian rapeseed oil, China can also import rapeseed oil from Belarus, Ukraine, and the UAE, but their export volumes are relatively small and only play an auxiliary role. In 2025, the estimated production of Belarusian rapeseed is 1 million tons, and the export volume is temporarily calculated at 200,000 tons per year as in normal years. In the 25/26 season, the production of Ukrainian rapeseed has decreased significantly, and the USDA's August estimate of its production is only 3.5 million tons (a year - on - year decrease of 7.89%), which limits the amount of rapeseed oil available for export in the new season. Moreover, Ukrainian rapeseed oil will be preferentially exported to the closer EU. This year, its export volume of rapeseed oil to China has decreased significantly, with the export volume from January to July being less than 10,000 tons, and its subsequent export potential is also very limited. The UAE can accept Canadian rapeseed that cannot enter China, but its annual import volume of about 1 million tons of rapeseed is close to the domestic processing limit of 1.1 million tons and cannot be further increased in the short term. From January to July 2025, it exported a total of 120,000 tons of rapeseed oil to China, and its annual export capacity is estimated to be about 300,000 tons [11]. - In general, increasing the import volume of rapeseed oil is another supplementary channel for China besides allowing the import of Australian rapeseed. This year, the abundant harvest of new - crop Russian rapeseed is also conducive to increasing its exports to China. The total annual export potential of rapeseed oil from Russia, Belarus, and the UAE is about 2 million tons. In terms of rhythm, like Canadian rapeseed, new - crop Russian, UAE, and Belarusian rapeseed oil also start to enter the Chinese market in large quantities after November every year because new - crop Russian and Belarusian rapeseed is harvested and enters the crushing plants for processing after November [12]. III. After August, the domestic rapeseed supply is expected to remain tight, and the import volume of Australian rapeseed determines the tightness amplitude - The annual consumption of rapeseed oil from domestic import sources (imported rapeseed for crushing/direct import of rapeseed oil) is about 2 - 3.5 million tons. In 2023 - 2024, China imported 5.05 million tons and 6.13 million tons of Canadian rapeseed respectively, which can be crushed into 2.17 million tons and 2.64 million tons of rapeseed oil according to the 43% oil yield. In addition, in these two years, China also imported 2.36 million tons and 1.88 million tons of rapeseed oil respectively. The total supply of rapeseed oil from import sources in 2023 - 2024 reached 4.53 million tons and 4.52 million tons respectively, far exceeding the normal domestic consumption, which is the main reason for the serious inventory accumulation of domestic rapeseed oil in these two years and its continuation into 2025 [17]. - In 2025, the domestic consumption of rapeseed oil is average, with a monthly consumption of about 240,000 - 270,000 tons and an estimated annual total consumption of 2.88 - 3.24 million tons. After subtracting the 2 million tons of imported rapeseed oil, there is still a gap of 880,000 - 1.24 million tons of rapeseed oil, which is approximately equivalent to 2 - 2.88 million tons of imported rapeseed. From January to July 2025, China has imported 2 million tons of rapeseed. Calculated according to the lowest consumption level, after July, there is no need to import rapeseed, and even importing only rapeseed oil can meet the domestic consumption demand. Moreover, the current domestic rapeseed oil inventory is still at a historical high, reaching 660,000 tons in the week ending August 29. Currently, there is no shortage of rapeseed oil. However, considering that the fourth quarter is the traditional peak consumption season for oils and fats and downstream enterprises will stock up in advance, the consumption of rapeseed oil will improve in the fourth quarter. Therefore, it is believed that there is still a supply gap after the absence of Canadian rapeseed in the fourth quarter, but the gap will not be large and will not reach a million - ton - level large gap [18]. - On the premise that China's anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed products remains unchanged, the import volume of Australian rapeseed is expected to be the biggest factor determining the tightness amplitude of the domestic rapeseed oil supply - demand situation in the second half of 2025 and even in 2026. If the import volume of Australian rapeseed into China is small due to incomplete liberalization in China or large - scale purchases by traditional exporting countries, there will be a certain supply gap in domestic rapeseed, which will help accelerate the depletion of rapeseed oil inventory, which is still at a historical high. However, if a large amount of Australian rapeseed enters China, with the cooperation of the increased import of rapeseed oil, the domestic rapeseed supply gap will be largely made up, and the inventory depletion speed of rapeseed oil will also slow down [19]. - In terms of rhythm, it is expected that new - crop Australian rapeseed and Russian/Belarusian/UAE rapeseed oil will not be available in large quantities until after November this year. So, at least before November, the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply can get little supplement, and the supply gap is expected to be the most obvious, and the expectation of accelerated inventory depletion of rapeseed oil remains unchanged. After November, it is the peak consumption season for rapeseed oil, but new - crop rapeseed and rapeseed oil start to be imported, so the supply - demand tension may be weaker than before November. As for the situation in 2026, it depends more on the export capacity of Australian rapeseed to China [19].
加菜籽反倾销调查初审落地后的国内菜系供应格局分析
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-08 07:46